Once sidelined by regulators, the New York–founded company is now preparing a U.S. comeback that could value the platform at as much as $10 billion, according to people familiar with the matter.

A Controversial Past, A Different Future

Polymarket made headlines during the 2024 U.S. presidential race when its markets consistently outperformed pollsters in forecasting Donald Trump’s victory. But its rapid rise was interrupted after the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) barred it from serving U.S. users in 2022.

That barrier began to fall this summer. The company acquired QCX, a small Florida-based exchange, and in September secured a CFTC no-action letter, granting the business relief from certain reporting requirements. CEO Shayne Coplan said the move clears the way for the platform to finally operate legally in the U.S.

Investor Frenzy

The regulatory breakthrough comes as fresh capital floods into the sector. In June, Polymarket raised $200 million in a round led by Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund — the same firm that seeded OpenAI, Palantir, and Paxos. Investors are now speculating that the platform’s value could rise tenfold, to as much as $10 billion, if its U.S. launch proves successful.

Polymarket isn’t alone. Kalshi, a rival event-trading exchange, is reportedly finalizing a raise that could value it at $5 billion. Its breakthrough came after a 2024 court ruling upheld its right to list political contracts, a decision regulators later stopped contesting. Since then, Kalshi has seen trading volume surge, with NFL season bets alone generating over $440 million in activity — a figure analysts compared to a U.S. election.

Why Prediction Markets Matter

Prediction markets have long existed on the margins of finance, but blockchain technology and regulatory shifts are pushing them closer to the mainstream. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi allow traders to speculate on everything from politics to sports in real time, turning public sentiment into market data.

If Polymarket’s U.S. return succeeds, it could cement the company as the face of a fast-emerging asset class — one that blends speculation, data aggregation, and decentralized finance in a way Wall Street can’t ignore.

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