An interview with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent: Deconstructing the "world's imagination" amidst the macroeconomic fog of 2026.

Compiled & translated by: Deep Tide TechFlow

Guest: Scott Bessent, U.S. Treasury Secretary

Host: Wilfred Frost

Podcast source: The Master Investor Podcast with Wilfred Frost

Original title: Scott Bessent: Inside Trump's Treasury; War Costs; & Why Bond Market is King

Broadcast date: March 13, 2026

Key points summary

Scott Bessent (the U.S. Treasury Secretary and one of the most successful global macro investors of his generation) visited the Treasury Department’s Cash Room for a rare and wide-ranging conversation with Wilfred Frost, covering topics from markets and geopolitics to public services.

Starting from his current position, Scott uses a perspective akin to a dimensional reduction attack to deconstruct why 85% of the consensus is merely meaningless noise , while the real excess returns (and the deep motivations behind the policies) are hidden in the "15% of the world's imagination."

He not only reviewed the "cognitive gaps" behind classic battles such as shorting the yen, but also revealed for the first time his survival philosophy as a "bond market lifesaver" amidst geopolitical conflicts and energy uncertainty in 2026. If you want to see through the macroeconomic truth that most people ignore and understand why he warns against letting yourself slip off the edge, the following summary of key points will be the cognitive hurdles you must overcome.

Summary of key viewpoints

Regarding "consensus" and "huge returns"

In most cases, market consensus is correct; roughly 85% to 90% of the time, market momentum is justified. But what truly matters is challenging the consensus when things start to turn, or when you can envision a different outcome—that's when the real rewards are found.

On "Imagination" and Investment Logic

My father had a huge collection of science fiction novels…which taught me how to imagine a completely different world. In finance, this ability is extremely important. You need to be able to imagine a different state of world and believe it's possible.

What really matters is your ability to imagine a different state of world and predict when, why, and how it will happen, while also judging whether the market is underestimating this possibility and acting accordingly.

On "Short Yen Selling" and Abenomics

I don’t know (whether these policies will work on the Japanese economy), but this will be a once-in-a-lifetime market opportunity.

My team and I have always had an advantage in that we can 'set aside' an idea after in-depth research and wait for the right opportunity.

On "Bond Markets" and "Real Risks"

Ultimately, the most important market is the bond market. The U.S. Treasury market is the deepest, most liquid, and most stable market in the world, and in this building, we are the guardians of this market.

In my 35-year career, the truly terrifying moments have been when the market is completely shut down—when price discovery mechanisms are disrupted, or when the market faces the threat of a “gate” being closed.

In-depth observation on "oil prices"

I think the key issue isn't the level of oil prices, but how long they last. If you look back at history, even in 2008, oil prices surged to a record high of $147, but the question is how long those high prices lasted.

Metaphors about "lifeguards"

As a lifeguard, you'll find that drowning people sometimes try to pull you down with them, a phenomenon that also occurs in investing and politics. But ultimately, your goal is always to save them and bring them back to safety. In fact, many drowning people can be saved simply by realizing they can stand up. Often, people in crises are primarily driven by panic.

Key advice for investors

Understand the risks you can take and ensure you always operate within your comfort zone. Don't let yourself "slip off the edge"—that is, don't put yourself in a position where you're forced to sell at the bottom of the market or chase the rise at the top.

You never know what will happen.

Regarding "shadow banking"

My role is not to directly regulate shadow banking, but rather to ensure that its interactions with the regulated banking system and insurance industry do not create systemic risks. Currently, while we have observed some volatility, there is no indication of systemic problems within the shadow banking system. However, we will continue to monitor the situation to prevent any potential risks from spreading to the regulated financial system.

Scott Bessent's underlying thought processes: the lifeguard metaphor, science fiction, and the world's imagination.

Wilfred Frost: Welcome to the Master Investor Podcast. Today's guest is US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, a heavyweight figure in the global financial world and one of the greatest investors of our time. He worked at Soros Fund Management for 20 years during the 1990s and 2000s, eventually rising to the position of Chief Investment Officer (CIO). In 2015, he founded his own hedge fund, Key Square, before embarking on a public service career as Treasury Secretary.

Before delving deeper into the topic, I'd like to quote a passage from your October 2025 interview with the Financial Times (FT). You said, "Unlike most of my predecessors, I maintain a very healthy skepticism toward elite institutions and elite opinions, which I don't think they are. But I have a healthy awe of the markets." This statement impressed me. Has this become your guiding principle after shifting from investing to politics?

Scott Bessent:

Yes, I think that's really a core principle of my investing: most of the time, the market consensus is right, and about 85% to 90% of the time, the market momentum makes sense. But what really matters is that when things start to turn around, or when you can imagine a different outcome, that's when you challenge the consensus and reap huge rewards.

Some of the most significant successes in my career have often come from standing on the opposite side of elite views. For example, Japan was once thought to be forever trapped in deflation and low growth, with the "lost decades" going on forever, but when I met Shinzo Abe, I thought he could be the catalyst for change.

Therefore, I've been searching for where the consensus might be going wrong. We need to ask ourselves: Is there a problem with the existing framework? Have we overlooked anything?

Wilfred Frost: Given your healthy respect for markets, which market do you consider most important? Ultimately, is the bond market the one you respect most?

Scott Bessent :

Yes, ultimately, the most important market is the bond market. The U.S. Treasury market is the deepest, most liquid, and most stable market in the world, and in this building, we are the guardians of this market.

We are committed to maintaining market transparency while ensuring sufficient resilience in terms of operations and settlement. Whether following Liberation Day last year or now amidst the conflict with Iran, market operations and settlements have been remarkably smooth, a key focus for us.

Wilfred Frost: Were there any moments in the bond market that caused you concern or anxiety? For example, last April or this January?

Scott Bessent :

As I just mentioned, there might be operational challenges at those times, but I monitor the bond market daily. Markets always fluctuate, but our focus is more on market continuity and functioning. In my 35-year career, the truly alarming moments have been when the market completely shuts down— when price discovery mechanisms are disrupted, or when the market faces the threat of "gating." Our focus is on ensuring the market continues to function, with both buyers and sellers, and that transactions can be completed smoothly.

Wilfred Frost: You once considered becoming a lifeguard, computer scientist, or even journalist. You then entered finance, initially as a banking analyst at Brown Brothers, but ultimately chose global macro investing as your career path. Did you ever consider lifeguarding as a long-term career?

Scott Bessent :

No, but it's not a long-term career. Whether due to physical limitations or prolonged exposure to sunlight, a lifeguard's career is short. As a lifeguard, you'll find that drowning people sometimes try to pull you in too, and this happens frequently in investment and politics as well. But ultimately, your goal is always to save them and bring them back to safe shore. In fact, many drowning people only need to realize they can stand up to be saved. Often, people in crises are primarily driven by panic.

Wilfred Frost: So, as a macro investor, you not only need to predict what might happen in the world, but also determine whether the market has mispriced in those predictions. Do you believe that the key to investment success lies in identifying these mispricings?

Scott Bessent :

I'm often asked, "What prepared you for your career?" My answer usually goes back to my childhood. My father had a huge collection of science fiction books, probably the largest collection in South Carolina—though that's not an exaggeration. He often read them to me when I was a kid. I always say that I knew how to point to Alpha Centauri long before I could find Chicago on a map.

This taught me how to imagine a completely different world. In finance, this ability is crucial. You need to be able to imagine a different state of world and believe it's possible. As legendary macro investor Bruce Kovner said, "I have the ability to imagine a different state of world and believe it's possible."

Therefore, what really matters is whether you can imagine a different state of world and predict when, why and how it will happen, while also judging whether the market is underestimating this possibility and acting accordingly.

The construction of the logic for long-term short selling of the Japanese yen and the change of the Finance Minister's role

Wilfred Frost: In the 2010s and early 2020s, the yen was very strong, with the exchange rate once below 80. You traded this for a decade and ultimately witnessed the yen depreciate all the way to around 150! Could you share with us what you saw in 2011 or 2012 (whatever exactly when you started this trade) that others didn't see?

Scott Bessent:

This brings us back to the issue of timing . In psychology, there's a significant psychological bias called the "endowment bias." When you invest a lot of time and energy in something, you have a strong urge to execute it immediately. I believe my team and I have consistently had the advantage of being able to "shelve" an idea after in-depth research, waiting for the right opportunity; the yen trading is a perfect example of this.

My first trip to Japan was in 1990, around the time the Nikkei index peaked. I stayed at the famous Okura Hotel in Tokyo for about three months; the room cost $500 per night then, but by 2011, the same room cost only $350. This clearly illustrates the long-term stagnation and decline of the Japanese economy.

I've witnessed Japan's economic rise, experienced its decline, and even followed its development during its long period of stagnation. 2011 was a significant turning point. On March 11th of that year, Japan experienced the Fukushima nuclear disaster, a devastating tragedy that included an earthquake, a tsunami, and the threat of a near-meltdown. The Japanese government's decision to shut down all nuclear reactors at the time gave me a glimpse of a potential catalyst.

Before that, shorting the yen was very difficult because Japan had a huge current account surplus, accounting for 3% of GDP. However, when Japan shut down its nuclear reactors, it had to start importing large amounts of fossil fuels, which caused the current account to turn from a surplus to a deficit.

Even so, the yen's exchange rate remained hovering between 78 and 83 at the time, without significant changes. Then one day, a Japanese friend of mine—Mr. Funabashi-san, a veteran Japanese journalist, thinker, and policy expert—called me and said, "There's a man named Shinzo Abe who has served as prime minister and may be returning to power. His campaign platform is 'restoring the vitality of the Japanese economy and national strength,' and he will promote an economic policy framework centered on reflation."

This information was a revelation, because I knew that the Bank of Japan was about to have three board seats vacant. This meant that the new prime minister would have the opportunity to reorganize the central bank's leadership, including a new governor, and given that the Bank of Japan had long been dominated by deflationists or low-inflationists, this reorganization could bring about a major policy shift. From that moment on, all the factors began to align.

Wilfred Frost : I recall you mentioning in a November 2024 interview on the Capital Allocators Podcast that your boss, George Soros, asked you, "Will Abenomics and these policies work for the Japanese economy?"

Your answer impressed me—you said, “I don’t know, but this will be a once-in-a-lifetime market opportunity.” As it turned out, your judgment was correct, and you made a lot of money in that trade. But now, you’ve transitioned from an investor to a policymaker, and you need to assess whether “policies can truly be implemented,” not just whether “market pricing is incorrect.” Is this a significant change for you?

Scott Bessent :

Regarding Japan and Abenomics, the "three arrows" policy has indeed achieved tremendous success. Initially, it produced immediate results at the market level. Over time, while Japan's policy implementation has remained cautious and gradual, perhaps slower than Western expectations, they have made remarkable efforts to reshape the economy and investment environment.

For example, they increased shareholder equity, improved return on capital, and encouraged women's participation in the labor market through "women's economics." It's worth noting that Japan's labor market has historically had virtually no liquidity, but they are actively pushing for change. Overall, Japan has achieved remarkable success in reshaping its economy.

Wilfred Frost: Now that you are a policymaker, not an investor, do you need to ignore market pricing and focus more on whether policies can actually be implemented?

Scott Bessent :

I will still draw information from the market, because the market can sometimes reflect important signals. However, my role now is more from a policy perspective, thinking about "what can be done, what should be done, and what will be done," and predicting the actual impact of these policies on the economy and the market.

For the past 30 years, my job has been to gather as much information as possible about policymakers' intentions—sometimes even trying to "eavesdrop" on their meetings. But now I sit at the policymaking table, making judgments about the feasibility of policies, how they will be implemented, and their potential market reactions.

Whenever I speak publicly on policy—whether it's after Liberation Day last year or about the current conflict in Iran— I strive to think from the perspective of market participants . I ask myself: If I were an investor, what kind of guidance would I want from policymakers? How can I provide a clear framework for the markets, the American public, and other policymakers around the world without revealing any significant non-public information?

Wilfred Frost : From an extremely successful and wealthy investor who became his own boss, to a policymaker who reports to the president—was this transition difficult for you?

Scott Bessent :

I am no stranger to working with people, and our cabinet team is outstanding, especially under such high pressure, where everyone has demonstrated a very high level of professionalism. Our situation room holds a series of morning meetings every day, and the team's performance is already excellent, but under the current circumstances, they have taken it to an even higher level.

In a sense, I feel I've been preparing for this job for a long time. In the past, when I attended G7 or G20 meetings as an investor, I knew many central bank governors and finance ministers. Back then, their task was to "reassure" investors like myself. Now, I work alongside them as peers and colleagues, discussing policy.

Global Energy and Geopolitical Games: Scott Bessent Discusses the Iran Conflict and US Economic Strategy

Wilfred Frost: WTI crude oil is currently around $94.95. At the beginning of the year, it was less than $60, but earlier this week it surged to $114-$115. At what level will oil prices start to become unsustainable for the US economy?

Scott Bessent :

I think the key is not the “level” of oil prices, but their “duration.” If you look back at history, even in 2008, oil prices surged to a record high of $147, but the question is how long those high prices lasted.

President Trump's energy policies have provided a significant buffer for the United States. Currently, U.S. liquid fuel production, including crude oil and natural gas, is at record high levels. Furthermore, natural gas prices are relatively stable, and these prices directly impact energy costs and household bills.

The president's top priority is to weaken Iran's military capabilities, including its missile capabilities, manufacturing capacity, air force, and navy, particularly its ability to project power beyond its borders. Simultaneously, the president is determined to "decapitate the snake," completely eliminating Iran's ability to act as the primary planner of global terrorism.

Wilfred Frost: The U.S. government and the International Energy Agency (IEA) recently announced the release of strategic petroleum reserves, the largest release in history. However, in the short term, this doesn't seem to have had much impact on rising oil prices. What are your thoughts on this?

Scott Bessent :

We need to look at this issue from a longer-term perspective; the market always reflects future expectations in advance. Oil prices surged by $30 on Sunday night, but then the Financial Times reported that the IEA was considering releasing 300 to 400 million barrels of strategic reserves. That day, we witnessed the largest single-day price reversal in history.

On Monday, we held a G7 finance ministers' meeting, focusing on energy issues. The energy ministers then met on Tuesday, and finally, at Wednesday's leaders' meeting, the president confirmed the unprecedented decision to release 400 million barrels from strategic reserves.

Wilfred Frost: Nevertheless, oil prices are still about $50 higher than at the beginning of the year. If this continues, would you consider sending the navy to escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz?

Scott Bessent :

This possibility has always been in our planning, and we have developed relevant scenario analyses, including options for the US Navy or an international coalition to escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. In fact, some oil tankers are already passing through, including those flying Iranian and Chinese flags, and we know that Iran has not laid mines in the strait.

Wilfred Frost: So, will the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz improve from now on?

Scott Bessent :

Once military conditions permit, the U.S. Navy—possibly within the framework of an international coalition—will escort ships safely through the Strait of Hormuz. We have been planning scenarios for this for months, even weeks, to ensure the success of the operation.

Wilfred Frost: I have a few more questions about this war. Could you disclose the current "daily operating cost" of this war? Is it $1 billion or $10 billion per day?

Scott Bessent :

I don't directly track the daily operating costs of the war because in the United States, the Treasury Department and the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) are separate entities. That's why we call him the Treasury Secretary, not the Finance Minister. However, based on data released today, the current cumulative costs are approximately $11 billion.

Wilfred Frost: In the long term, how long do you expect this war to last? Can the U.S. treasury withstand such pressure?

Scott Bessent :

$11 billion is indeed a huge sum, but we have already set aside sufficient fiscal buffers for it. We are not worried about funding. In fact, overseas demand for U.S. Treasury bonds continued to grow last year, and the U.S. Treasury market performed exceptionally well, being the only G7 bond market where the 10-year yield declined.

Wilfred Frost: One last question: The US government recently granted Indian refiners a 30-day exemption, allowing them to buy Russian oil. Does this mean Russia is benefiting from this conflict? What are your thoughts on this?

Scott Bessent :

This is indeed unfortunate, but we must consider the availability of supply. We granted a 30-day exemption because these Russian tankers were already at sea, providing a rapid energy source for Indian refineries. On the other hand, this oil could ultimately flow to China. Therefore, we hope this benefit will be limited to a "very short period."

The New Normal of Oil Prices and Gold Revaluation: The Fed Needs to Find a "Slimming-down" Solution from the Liquidity Trap

Wilfred Frost: Let's talk about the Federal Reserve, and the short-term and long-term direction of domestic policy. Starting with the short term, do you think the current volatility in oil prices will affect the pace of the Fed's easing policy?

Scott Bessent :

This requires finding a balance among several factors. I think the Federal Reserve may be concerned that rising energy prices will push up inflation expectations; but on the other hand, they also need to observe whether the impact of rising oil prices on the economy is a short-term "potential" or a decline in long-term "momentum." If it is just a short-term shock, the economy may rebound quickly.

Another point worth noting is that if oil prices are below $60 at the beginning of the year and the conflict ultimately ends in a way that benefits the United States, then in the medium term, we may enter a new normal of lower oil prices.

Wilfred Frost: If the Federal Reserve has to raise interest rates in the future, and your debt management currently relies more on short-term Treasury issuance, would you consider shifting to issuing more long-term Treasury bonds?

Scott Bessent :

We will work closely with the Federal Reserve to coordinate debt management strategies. As for whether the Fed will restart quantitative easing (QE), at present, this possibility is very distant and not even worth discussing.

Wilfred Frost: You are an Anglophile and have lived in Britain for a long time. Do you prefer the Bank of England's operating model to the Federal Reserve's?

Scott Bessent :

The Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are very different institutions. The Federal Reserve is a larger, more decentralized organization with multiple regional Federal Reserve Banks and Board of Governors members, but only a subset of these members have voting rights. In contrast, the Bank of England has a more centralized structure, divided into the Monetary Policy Committee and the Executive Board, with only the Governor participating in the work of both committees.

Wilfred Frost: The Bank of England's model has several characteristics, such as an inflation target within a 1% range, and unconventional measures like QE requiring Chancellor of the Exchequer's approval. Do you think these characteristics are worth emulating by the Federal Reserve?

Scott Bessent :

I believe setting an inflation target is a worthwhile approach, but I don't think the Federal Reserve needs to completely adopt the Bank of England's model. Regarding QE, I do think the Bank of England's operations were more in line with the nature of unconventional measures. The Bank of England briefly intervened in the market at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, stabilizing UK government bonds, and then quickly withdrew. The Federal Reserve, on the other hand, continued to buy assets for the following four years, which may have been one of the reasons for the "Great Inflation" of 2022 and 2023.

Wilfred Frost: The United States holds a large gold reserve, but its book value is still calculated at an outdated price of $42 per ounce, while the current market price exceeds $5,000 per ounce. Could revaluing gold and sterilizing it provide an opportunity to shrink the Federal Reserve's balance sheet while avoiding a liquidity crisis?

Scott Bessent :

I believe these are two completely separate issues. If the Federal Reserve is to adjust its balance sheet, they need to give it significant advance notice and develop a detailed plan. We also need to re-examine the impact of banking regulation on balance sheets since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), particularly regarding interbank markets and reserve requirements.

Currently, the Federal Reserve operates on a high-reserve model, but it may switch to a "lean" model in the future, where banks provide reserves to each other. This transition will require time and careful planning.

Wilfred Frost: You had the opportunity to serve as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, but ultimately chose to remain as Treasury Secretary. Why did you feel that Treasury Secretary was a better fit for you?

Scott Bessent :

I enjoy interacting with my cabinet colleagues, and the role of finance minister allows me to be directly involved in the formulation and implementation of national policies.

As Secretary of the Treasury, my responsibilities include maintaining the global dominance of the dollar, managing the nation's debt, and operating the U.S. sanctions system. These tasks involve not only the economy but also national security. I believe these tasks are particularly important at this particular historical juncture.

Wilfred Frost: The private credit sector has been under intense scrutiny lately. If problems arise in this sector, should the investors who profited in the market bear the consequences themselves, rather than the government intervening?

Scott Bessent :

This is why we call it the "shadow banking system." It is not part of the traditional regulated banking system.

My role is not to directly regulate shadow banking, but rather to ensure that its interactions with the regulated banking system and insurance industry do not create systemic risks. Currently, while we have observed some volatility, there is no indication of systemic problems within the shadow banking system. However, we will continue to monitor the situation to prevent any potential risks from spreading to the regulated financial system.

Geopolitical cooperation under tariff pressure and new consensus under the "Iran threat"

Wilfred Frost: Having lived in the UK for many years, you have a deep understanding of "special relationships." Recently, President Trump expressed his dissatisfaction with the UK, stating that the British Prime Minister is not Winston Churchill. What is your opinion on this assessment?

Scott Bessent :

President Trump expressed concern about several delays, particularly regarding the use of Diego Garcia Air Force Base. The increased flight time and in-flight refueling required for U.S. B-2 bombers inherently increase risks. As Commander-in-Chief of the U.S. military, the President prioritizes the protection of military lives and is therefore highly sensitive to any actions that could potentially increase these risks.

Wilfred Frost: So do you think Britain is also putting American lives at risk?

Scott Bessent :

We have a very deep historical relationship with the United Kingdom, and I believe we can overcome these differences and get back on track. However, to be honest, the Prime Minister was indeed slow to react to the issue of allocating resources to the region, but I believe our long-standing relationship with the United Kingdom can withstand short-term fluctuations, and ultimately we will get back on track.

Wilfred Frost: On a broader level, will the recent announcement of new tariff investigations against several countries, including EU member states, Switzerland, Singapore, South Korea, and Norway, affect ally support for the United States, especially at this critical juncture of the ongoing war?

Scott Bessent :

If restoring normal tariff levels would put some countries on the opposite side, then they were never true allies to begin with. We currently enforce a global tariff of 10%, and the countries that have signed trade agreements with us want to maintain the status quo.

To clarify, these tariff investigations are part of normal business procedures. While the Supreme Court ruled that the president cannot use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEPA) to impose tariffs, we can restructure the tariff system through Section 301 or Section 122 of the Trade Act. These measures are intended to ensure a level playing field, not to target allies.

Wilfred Frost: Are you concerned that the U.S. policy style—such as acting first without the full consent of allies—will be interpreted as “America’s isolation” rather than “America First”?

Scott Bessent :

I don't think so. In the recent G7 leaders' call, all leaders expressed support for the US actions in the Middle East and congratulated us on our success in weakening the Iranian threat.

Furthermore, regarding the Strait of Hormuz, several countries have expressed their willingness to provide minesweepers and participate in establishing an international coalition to ensure safe passage through the seas. No country wants the Iranian regime to continue in its current form. The Arab states in the Gulf region, in particular, were shocked by Iran's attacks, realizing that the situation would become even more dangerous if Iran's military capabilities were further strengthened.

Wilfred Frost: You've mentioned that investing requires "winning the right to take risks." From this perspective, do you think the United States has a smaller "pile of chips" on the global stage today than it did in the past?

Scott Bessent :

On the contrary, I believe the United States is stronger today than it has been in the past. We have achieved dominance in energy, transforming from an energy importer to an exporter; we continue to lead the world in technology, particularly in artificial intelligence, where the U.S. currently controls 70% to 80% of the world's computing power; and our military strength has reached unprecedented levels, making us more powerful and lethal than ever before.

Economically, the US is growing far faster than Europe. For example, the EU is celebrating 0.3% GDP growth, while we expect the US to achieve 3% growth once the current conflict ends, almost 10 times that of Europe.

Wilfred Frost: But the US debt level is also rising and oil reserves are declining. Could this become a hidden concern?

Scott Bessent :

The debt-to-GDP ratio has indeed risen globally, a consequence of the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. However, in terms of relative strength, the United States still outperforms other countries in debt management and economic growth.

Within the comfort zone of risk, awaiting the convergence of quantification and narrative.

Wilfred Frost: One last question, could you offer our audience one core piece of investment and career advice?

Scott Bessent :

Regarding career advice, I want to tell everyone that you can never predict what the future holds. When I graduated from Yale in 1980, I originally wanted to be a journalist or a computer scientist, but I eventually discovered that investing, which combines the “quantitative” aspect of computation with the “qualitative” aspect of narrative, fascinated me.

As for investing, my advice is: be clear about the risks you can take and make sure you always operate within your comfort zone. Don't let yourself "skip off the edge"—that is, don't put yourself in a situation where you're forced to sell at the bottom of the market or chase the rally at the top.

Wilfred Frost: So do you think the US actions in the Middle East have "gone off the edge"?

Scott Bessent :

Absolutely not. Our operations are progressing faster than planned, and Iran's military capabilities are being weakened. As for whether Iran's Supreme Leader has become incapacitated or is under internal threat, that remains uncertain.

Wilfred Frost: Do you think there might be a change of regime in Iran in the next few days?

Scott Bessent :

Our objectives are clear: to weaken Iran's military capabilities, prevent it from developing atomic weapons, and limit its ability to project military power outwards. However, once operations begin, the situation often develops in ways that exceed expectations and create its own dynamics.