XRP Trades at $1.44 Inside a Critical Triangle: The Next Move Could Be $2.05 or $1.15

XRP trades at $1.4408 at the time of writing, sitting on the 200 EMA on the 5-day timeframe inside a contracting triangle structure that analyst EGRAG Crypto says carries a 55% to 60% probability of an upside resolution and a 40% to 45% chance of a breakdown toward $1.15 or lower.

What the 1-Hour Chart Shows

Price opened the March 18 session near $1.53 and traded between $1.52 and $1.54 through the early morning hours, with the 50 SMA rising from below near $1.49 and price comfortably above it.

The breakdown began around midday on March 18. A sequence of large red candles pushed price from $1.53 down through $1.48, then $1.46, then $1.44 within a few hours. The tallest pink volume bars on the chart are concentrated in that midday to early afternoon window, confirming the move carried meaningful sell-side conviction. Price found a floor near $1.43 to $1.44 by mid-afternoon and attempted a recovery through the evening, pushing back toward $1.47 to $1.48 by the late evening of March 18.

That recovery faded overnight into March 19. Price churned between $1.44 and $1.47 through the morning before a fresh red candle in the early afternoon of March 19 pushed back toward $1.44. The 50 SMA now sits at $1.4873, sloping downward above current price. The gap between current price and the 50 SMA is approximately 3.3%. Price has not reclaimed it since the March 18 breakdown.

The RSI Remains Weak

The RSI panel shows the faster purple line at 38.86 and the slower yellow line at 42.58. The purple line has crossed below the yellow, a bearish signal on the 1-hour timeframe. Both readings are below the 50 midpoint. The purple line touched near 28 during the March 18 breakdown, its lowest point on the visible chart, before recovering slightly. The current reading reflects a partial bounce from oversold conditions without any meaningful momentum recovery.

The 5-Day Structure EGRAG Is Watching

Analyst EGRAG Crypto published an analysis on the XRP/USD 5-day chart covering the full cycle from 2023 through a projected 2026 to 2027 timeline. The chart identifies a yellow ascending triangle forming directly on the 200 EMA, which sits near the $1.40 to $1.46 area based on the current price interaction.

The ascending triangle is marked as a recovery zone rather than a confirmed breakout structure. Price is reclaiming short-term structure after a breakdown but remains below the major resistance zone between $1.70 and $2.05. EGRAG is explicit that this is not a clean bullish breakout environment yet.

The upside scenario, assigned a 55% to 60% probability, requires a break above the triangle and reclaim of $1.58, which would open a move toward $1.70. Holding above $1.70 with acceptance, not just a wick, targets $2.05 as the first major level based on the ascending triangle measured move. If that continuation holds, the macro target is $3.20, visible as a labeled level on the longer timeframe chart. The $6.50 level is also marked on the chart as a longer-horizon projection.

The downside scenario, carrying a 40% to 45% probability, activates on a loss of triangle support combined with a loss of the 200 EMA. The immediate measured move target in that scenario is $1.15, labeled directly on the chart. If selling accelerates beyond that level, EGRAG identifies a true bottom zone between $0.93 and $0.75, consistent with the bottoming target box visible in the lower right portion of the chart.

The Key Caveat

EGRAG’s own framing is the most important context for interpreting the analysis. Ascending triangles are structurally bullish by design. Formed under resistance, they produce false breakouts at a meaningful frequency. The probability leans bullish. Confirmation is everything.

Current price at $1.4408 sits approximately 3.3% below the declining 1-hour 50 SMA and on top of the 5-day 200 EMA. Both timeframes are pointing to the same level as the decision point. The $1.58 reclaim is the trigger that separates the two scenarios. It has not happened yet.

The post XRP Trades at $1.44 Inside a Critical Triangle: The Next Move Could Be $2.05 or $1.15 appeared first on ETHNews.