Bitcoin and Stocks Brace for Quadruple Witching as Crypto Tests $70K

TLDR

• Quadruple witching on Friday will see trillions in stock and index derivatives expire at the same time
• Bitcoin dropped below $70,000 on Thursday, struggling to hold key support levels
• Bitcoin’s past quadruple witching days showed flat price action followed by weeks of weakness
• Futures traders, not spot buyers, are driving the current sell-off in crypto markets
• A separate $13.5 billion crypto derivatives expiry is set for March 27 on Deribit

Bitcoin fell below $70,000 Thursday as global markets prepared for one of the biggest quarterly derivatives events in traditional finance.

Quadruple witching happens four times a year — on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. It marks the simultaneous expiry of stock index futures, stock index options, single-stock options, and single-stock futures.

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The scale of the event is large. In March 2025, around $4.7 trillion worth of equity and index derivatives expired during the same session. That day recorded the highest S&P 500 trading volume of the entire year, according to TradeStation.

Figures for the March 2026 expiry have not yet been published.

During these events, institutions are forced to close, roll over, or settle positions at the same time. Trading activity tends to spike, and price swings can get sharper, especially in the final hour of trading.

How Bitcoin Has Reacted to Past Witching Days

Looking back at 2025, Bitcoin’s price moves on the actual day of quadruple witching were mostly flat. The bigger drops came in the days and weeks after.

On March 21, 2025, Bitcoin was slightly lower on the day but later bottomed near $76,000 after the market reacted to President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs. On June 20, it dropped 1.5% and hit a local low near $98,000 just two days later.

On September 19, Bitcoin fell over 1% but then dropped sharply from $177,000 to $108,000 in the following week. On December 19, it finished up around 3% at $85,000 but remained in a broader downtrend.

The pattern is consistent: muted moves on the day, followed by weakness over the coming days or weeks.

What Is Driving the Current Sell-Off

Data shows the current Bitcoin drop is being driven more by futures traders than by spot market buyers. The Coinbase premium gap turned negative, suggesting U.S. investor demand has cooled.

Crypto analyst IT Tech noted that while spot selling fell by around $40 million, selling in the perpetual futures market was far larger at $506.75 million. That points to leveraged traders as the main force behind the decline.

Some traders see a potential short-term recovery. If Bitcoin can reclaim $70,000 quickly, the next target is $76,000. But if the price drops below $68,300, the next support levels are $65,000 and $62,000.

Beyond crypto, the broader environment is adding pressure. Oil prices have risen toward $120 per barrel, the VIX volatility index jumped above 35 last week — its highest in a year — and gold slipped below $4,600.

Looking ahead, a separate $13.5 billion crypto derivatives expiry is set for March 27 on Deribit. Positioning in that market points to demand for volatility strategies rather than strong directional bets.

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