Bitcoin Price Faces Growing Risk of Dropping to $65K in March, Here’s Why

Key Insights:

• The Bitcoin (BTC) price odds of hitting $65K in March rise to 48% on Polymarket.
• US-Iran tensions and leveraged liquidations add downward pressure.
• Market sentiment remains bearish; NUPL suggests the bottom could reach $45K–$50K.

As the Bitcoin (BTC) price has failed to hold the critical $70k level, experts and traders fear that the cryptocurrency will plummet to further lows in March.

Amid Fed rate hike expectations and rising US-Iran tensions, the odds of BTC price dropping to $65k has reached nearly 50% on Polymarket. Key market events this month could make the road ahead even bumpier.

Why Is Bitcoin Price Down Today?

The Bitcoin price is currently experiencing significant pressure in line with the broader crypto market downturn. As of press time, BTC price was valued at $69,210, down 2.16% in a day.

Despite a 2.15% monthly surge, the coin had plummeted by more than 3% in a week. The current decline is mainly driven by the escalating US-Iran war tensions.

On March 21, US President Donald Trump threatened Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. This has further heightened the Middle East tensions. In response to these heightened issues, BTC price was acting like a risk asset as the broader crypto market sank.

In addition, Bitcoin (BTC) lost about $121 million in leveraged positions in just 24 hours. These forced liquidations added extra downward pressure on the Bitcoin price.

The 26% drop in the 24-hour trading volume also explains the current downtrend in the BTC price. With the volume dipping to $25.99 billion in a day, it is identified that traders are taking a cautious approach.

The lesser activity indicates a significant decline in the buying pressure.

Is Bitcoin Price Heading Toward $65K?

The current downtrend in the Bitcoin price is sparking fresh waves of caution and fear among investors. Experts warn that the crypto is poised for further crashes this month.

The odds of Bitcoin (BTC) dropping to $65K in March have climbed to 48%, while the chances of it rising to higher targets remain below 15%. This indicates that the community remains less optimistic about a possible Bitcoin price rally.

Bitcoin Price Movement Odds | Source: Polymarket

Polymarket traders are responding to uncertainty in the economy and market swings as Bitcoin price hovers around $69k. Short-term selling is putting pressure on the price, and many traders are preparing for a potential market bottom.

Analysts point to past Bitcoin (BTC) halving cycles as a reason for this cautious outlook. The NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit and Loss) indicator shows that a full cycle bottom hasn’t arrived yet.

This suggests that the BTC price could still dip to $45,000–$50,000 in the coming months before stabilizing.

Why is Further Fall Imminent for BTC Price?

The current sentiment in the crypto market is largely bearish, mainly due to the US-Iran tensions. As the latest developments indicate that the war will extend, Bitcoin (BTC) price may face more losses.

In addition, there are speculations of a potential Fed rate hike. Although the Fed kept interest rates unchanged after its latest meeting, markets are now expecting hikes later this year. This is especially due to the rising oil prices and inflation hikes. Bank of America also warned of this possibility.

Previously, markets expected up to four Fed rate cuts in 2026. But tensions like the US-Iran conflict and rising inflation have changed that outlook. The Kobeissi Letter took X to share this concerning picture.

The commentator also added that the 10-year Treasury yield has jumped about 40 basis points since the conflict began, pushing mortgage rates higher. In Europe, the ECB is expected to hike rates twice this year, pointing to tighter global financial conditions.

If oil prices keep climbing, US inflation could hit around 3.3%, adding more pressure on markets.

These factors indicate that the Bitcoin price is most likely to plummet further. If these conditions persist, a BTC price hike cannot be expected in the coming months.

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