Cardano (ADA) has stayed under pressure over the past year, even as some market signals point to a possible recovery. 

The token traded at $0.2628 at the time of reporting, with a 24-hour trading volume of $594.4 million and a market cap of about $9.69 billion. Although ADA gained 0.47% in the past day, it still fell 8.23% over the last seven days.

ADA is now trading close to the $0.25 level, which has become a key support zone in recent weeks. The token has tested this area several times over the past month and has managed to stay above it in most cases.

The only clear break came during the February 6 flash crash, when ADA briefly dropped to $0.22 before moving back above $0.25. That quick recovery kept market focus on whether the current range could again act as a base for a rebound.

Previous rebounds brought strong gains

Market analyst Ali Martinez said Cardano posted large gains the last two times it bounced from this support area on a higher timeframe. According to his data, ADA rose 85% in early 2023 after holding this zone.

The token also climbed about 200% between October 2023 and March 2024 after another successful defense of the same level. Those earlier moves have drawn fresh attention to the current setup as ADA trades near that support once again.

Another signal came from the weekly chart, where the TD Sequential printed a buy signal after ADA dropped from its mid-January peak of $0.44 to about $0.26. That decline left the token down roughly 40% in two months.

On-chain data has also shown weak positioning among active holders. Santiment reported that wallets active on the Cardano network over the past year are sitting on an average return of negative 43%, based on Market Value to Realized Value data. The firm said this could place ADA in an “opportunity” or “buy” zone.

SEC classification adds a new backdrop

The weak price action has come even after Cardano received positive regulatory news in the United States. On March 17, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission classified ADA as a digital commodity.