Democrat Emily Gregory wins 'Trump’s backyard' in 'massive shift'

Democrat candidate Emily Gregory won Florida state house special election against Republican John Maples.

The district, according to CNN analyst Harry Enten, is “in Donald Trump's backyard, but he added that “it has been happening across the country.”

"We have seen these massive shifts in these special elections. I looked at all of them, okay, … and so far to date, the state legislative, the federal special elections, and … what we've seen so far is a shift to the Democrats on average of 12 points,” said Enten. “We have seen a shift of 12 points from the Kamala Harris baseline. This is emblematic of what we have seen nationwide, which is a double-digit shift towards the Democrats versus that 2024 baseline.”

Trump won that same district by 11 points in 2024, Enten told CNN anchor Erin Burnett.

Enten added that this spells terrible news for Donald Trump and Republicans in the mid-terms.

“It's not just because it's in Donald Trump's backyard, though. … [H]istorically speaking, special elections have forecasted what will happen in the midterm elections,” said Enten. “I went all the way back since I was in high school, back to the 2005, 2006 cycle, and every single time a party outperformed the presidential baseline in the next midterm election, what we saw — five out of five times — that party went on to win the U.S. House of representatives.”

“So what is happening right now in Mar-a-lago is unlikely to stay a Mar-a-lago,” said Enten. “It is likely to expand nationwide and to expand in the midterm elections as well.”

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