XRP Price: A Short Squeeze Is Brewing — Here’s What the Data Shows

TLDR

• XRP dropped from a March high of $1.60 to around $1.36, a 15% decline
• The price is now below $1.40 and the 100-hour Simple Moving Average
• Open Interest climbed from $886 million to $946 million even as the price fell
• The OI-weighted funding rate turned negative (-0.0086), showing short positions dominate
• Around $314 million in short positions are clustered between $1.375 and $1.405, creating a potential short squeeze zone

XRP has been under pressure after failing to hold above $1.40. The token climbed 26% between late February and mid-March, rising from $1.27 on Feb. 28 to $1.60 by March 17. That rally stalled at $1.60, which acted as resistance, and the price has been declining since.

XRP now trades around $1.36, down roughly 15% from that March peak. The price dipped to a recent low of $1.3358 before consolidating. It currently sits below the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent down move.

A bearish trend line has formed on the hourly chart, with resistance sitting at $1.3750. The price would need to clear $1.3850 first — the 50% Fibonacci retracement level — before taking on the key $1.40 level.

Open Interest Climbs as Price Falls

What’s drawing attention from analysts is the rise in Open Interest during this price decline. On March 25, when XRP was trading at $1.42, total Open Interest stood at $886 million. By March 26, with the price down to $1.36, Open Interest had climbed to $946 million. It has since eased slightly to around $933 million.

CryptoQuant analyst JA Maartunn flagged the divergence between price and Open Interest, calling the setup “juicy” but urging caution.

The OI-weighted funding rate has dropped to -0.0086. Negative funding means traders are paying to hold short positions, confirming that bearish bets are dominant right now.

Short Squeeze Risk Grows

Liquidation data from Coinglass shows about $70 million in short positions at $1.375, with another $44.98 million near $1.3785. In total, roughly $314 million in short positions are concentrated between $1.375 and $1.405.

If XRP moves into that range, forced buying from liquidated shorts could accelerate the move higher. This type of event is called a short squeeze.

Two scenarios are in play. In the first, XRP stays below $1.37, sellers hold control, and the price continues to drift lower toward $1.3350 or $1.3220. Below that, $1.30 becomes the next support area.

In the second, XRP pushes into the $1.375–$1.405 zone, triggering a wave of short liquidations. That could rapidly push the price toward $1.4120 and beyond.

At the time of writing, XRP is trading near $1.36, holding above the $1.35 support level, with Open Interest at approximately $933 million.

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