Bitcoin (BTC) Price: Rising Bond Yields and Oil Prices Push BTC Toward Key Support – What’s Next?

TLDR

• Bitcoin is trading near $66,126, on track for its sixth consecutive red monthly close in March.
• U.S. 10-year Treasury yields are approaching 5%, which historically has pushed BTC lower.
• Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $296 million in weekly outflows, snapping a four-week inflow streak.
• Brent crude oil has surged from ~$75 to ~$106 this month, fueling inflation concerns.
• Bitcoin is range-bound between $65,000 and $72,000, with capital avoiding directional risk.

Bitcoin is under pressure as rising U.S. bond yields, surging oil prices, and a reversal in ETF flows combine to weigh on price. BTC was trading near $66,126 at time of writing, heading for a bearish monthly close.

Bitcoin entered March with momentum, hitting a high of $76,000 early in the month. That rally was partly fueled by optimism around geopolitical developments involving the U.S., Iran, and Gulf states. But macro headwinds have since taken over.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is now a key focus for traders. It appears to be consolidating in a bullish flag pattern, which often signals further upside. A confirmed breakout could push yields toward 5% or higher, levels last seen in 2023.

Higher yields make fixed-income assets more attractive, pulling capital away from riskier bets like Bitcoin. History backs this up. Between October 2021 and December 2022, yields rose from 1.45% to 3.90% while BTC fell from $67,000 to $16,256.

If yields push to 5%, analysts suggest Bitcoin could pull back to a demand zone between $58,632 and $55,302.

ETF Outflows Signal Shift in Sentiment

Spot Bitcoin ETFs broke a four-week inflow streak, posting $296.18 million in net outflows for the week ending Friday. That followed more than $2.2 billion in cumulative inflows over the prior four weeks.

Thursday and Friday alone saw over $396 million in withdrawals. Friday’s single-day outflow of $225.48 million was the largest since March 3.

Total net assets in spot Bitcoin ETFs dropped to $84.77 billion from over $90 billion a week earlier. Weekly trading volume also fell to $14.26 billion, down from $25.87 billion earlier in March.

Oil Prices Add to Inflation Pressure

Oil prices have surged sharply this month. Brent crude has climbed from around $75 at the start of March to approximately $106. WTI crude was near $101 at time of writing.

The move is linked to supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions, including concerns around the Strait of Hormuz. Elevated energy prices reduce the odds of near-term interest rate cuts, keeping financial conditions tight.

Spot Ethereum ETFs also recorded outflows for a second straight week, posting $206.58 million in weekly losses.

Crypto analyst Ash Crypto noted on X that if BTC closes March in the red, it will mark six consecutive red monthly closes — something that has only happened once before in Bitcoin’s history, in 2018.

Cumulative net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs remain at $55.93 billion as of the latest data.

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