Brent heads for record monthly jump as Houthis widen conflict

• War escalates as Houthis attack Israel
• Concern over Saudi oil exports from Red Sea
• Iran accuses US of ground assault plans

Oil prices extended gains on Monday, with Brent headed for a record monthly rise, after Yemeni Houthis launched their first attacks on Israel over the weekend, widening the US-Israeli war with Iran.

Brent crude futures jumped $2.43, or 2.16 percent, to $115 a barrel by 03:42 GMT after settling 4.2 percent higher on Friday.

US West Texas Intermediate was at $101.50 a barrel, up $1.86, or 1.87 percent, following a 5.5 percent gain in the previous session.

“The market has all but discounted the prospect of a negotiated end to the war, Trump’s claims of ongoing ‘direct and indirect’ talks with Iran notwithstanding, and is bracing for a sharp escalation in military hostilities, which is a bullish signal for crude,” said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights.

US President Donald Trump said the US and Iran have been meeting “directly and indirectly” and that Iran’s new leaders have been “very reasonable”, as more American troops arrived in the region. The Israeli military said on Monday it is attacking the Iranian government’s infrastructure throughout Tehran.

Brent has soared 59 percent this month, the steepest monthly jump, exceeding gains seen during the 1990 Gulf War, after the Iran conflict effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for a fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies.

The war, launched on February 28 with US and Israeli strikes on Iran, has spread across the Middle East, with Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis on Saturday launching their first attacks on Israel since the start of the conflict, raising concern about shipping lanes around the Arabian Peninsula and the Red Sea.

“The conflict is no longer concentrated in the Persian Gulf and around the Strait of Hormuz, but now extends into the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb — one of the world’s most crucial chokepoints for crude and refined product flows,” JP Morgan analysts led by Natasha Kaneva said in a note.

Saudi crude exports re-directed from the strait to the Yanbu port in the Red Sea reached 4.658 million barrels per day last week, data from analytics firm Kpler showed.

If exports from Yanbu were disrupted, Saudi oil would need to pivot toward Egypt’s Suez-Mediterranean pipeline to the Mediterranean, JP Morgan analysts said.

Attacks in the region escalated over the weekend and damaged Oman’s Salalah terminal despite efforts to start ceasefire talks.

Iran said it was ready to respond to a US ground attack, accusing Washington on Sunday of preparing a land assault even as it sought negotiations.

Further reading:

• Aramco oil exports spike after shift to Red Sea ports
• Saudi cargo trains expand service due to Hormuz closure
• Saudi Arabia expands shipping services via Red Sea