Bitcoin price models point to $40K–$50K as potential BTC bottom

Bitcoin (BTC) buyers made a tepid comeback on Monday, pushing BTC price to its intraday high of $67,860. Analysts said that Bitcoin remains in a bear market, with several metrics pointing to a potential bottom below $50,000.

Key takeaways:

• Bitcoin price turns $70,000 into resistance, clearing the path for a deeper correction.

• Bitcoin’s short-term holder realized price bands moved lower, with a potential bottom around $46,000.

• Historical retracement levels and a bear flag breakdown point to $39,000–$41,000 as the final low for BTC price this cycle.

Bitcoin’s “path of least resistance” is downward

Data from TradingView captured ongoing BTC price gains, up 1.5% on the day to trade at $67,750, as $69,000-$70,000 became new resistance.

Analyzing Bitcoin’s price action on lower time frames, Telegram trading resource Technical Crypto Analyst said losing the $68,000-$69,000 support “confirms short-term bearish momentum,” adding:

Related: Worst six months since 2018? Five things to know in Bitcoin this week

“Great bounce upwards, but nothing confirmed as of yet on Bitcoin,” MN Capital founder Michael van de Poppe said in a Monday post on X.

It “all depends on macroeconomic events; however, I'd rather see a breakout above $71K for confirmation,” he added.

Analyst Kyle Chassé said that with the Fear and Greed index still in the “extreme fear zone” and the order books showing more shorts than longs, the market leans “towards more downside.”

Where will the Bitcoin price bottom?

Bitcoin’s 46% drawdown from its $126,000 all-time high has seen the cost basis of short-term holders (STH) — the average price of entities who have held BTC for less than 155 days — drop from $113,500 to $83,200.

“​​This is a sign that the pricing for a potential bottom has also moved lower,” said CEO and founder at Alphractal Joao Wedson in an X post on Monday.

Similarly, the lower line of the STH realized pricing bands (blue line) has also moved “even lower, which could confirm that Bitcoin may form a bottom around $50K or slightly below,” Wedson added.

The chart below shows that Bitcoin bottomed out just below the lower band of the STH realized price during the 2022 bear market. 

Analyst Willy Woo said that the bear market bottom for Bitcoin could be between its realized price, currently at $54,000, and the Cumulative Value-Days Destroyed (CVDD), now at $45,500.

The CVDD measures the cumulative value of "Coin Days Destroyed" (long-term holders selling) relative to the market's age, creating a rising "floor" price during bear markets. 

Crypto analyst Crypto Jelle said Bitcoin’s bear market lows have historically formed between the 0.618 and the 0.786 retracement levels, which are at $57,600 and $39,000, respectively.

As Cointelegraph reported, the current “last stages” of the bear market are producing predictions of as low as $41,000, based on a bear flag breakdown.