TotalEnergies (TTE) Stock Gains 35% YTD After $1bn Middle East Oil Trade

TLDR

• TotalEnergies made over $1bn in profit by buying around 70 crude oil cargoes from UAE and Oman in March
• War disruptions closed the Strait of Hormuz, cutting benchmark deliverable crude supply by around 40%
• Dubai crude prices surged from ~$70 to a high of ~$170 per barrel during the conflict
• TTE stock has gained more than 10% in the past month and over 35% year to date
• Analysts have a Moderate Buy consensus on TTE with an average price target of $84.31

TTE stock is currently trading near the $89 mark, up over 35% year to date.

TotalEnergies SE, TTE

TotalEnergies (TTE) made over $1bn in profit in March by buying up crude oil at scale across the Middle East, as war disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and sent prices surging.

According to the Financial Times, TotalEnergies traders purchased around 70 cargoes of crude from the UAE and Oman — more than double its February purchases — available for May delivery. Oxford energy lecturer Adi Imsirovic called it one of the biggest bets ever seen in oil markets.

The company declined to comment on its trading activities.

The opportunity came from a structural break in how Middle Eastern oil is priced. S&P Global Platts, which runs the Dubai crude benchmark — the main pricing reference for Asian oil imports — suspended nominations of crude grades requiring Strait of Hormuz transit on 2 March, after major shipping companies halted passage amid safety concerns.

Three of the five crude grades used to set the benchmark were pulled from the market. That cut deliverable supply by around 40%, leaving only Abu Dhabi’s Murban and Oman crude eligible.

With liquidity sharply reduced, the market became far more vulnerable to a dominant position. TotalEnergies stepped in.

How the Trade Played Out

Dubai crude climbed from around $70 a barrel just before the conflict to an all-time high of around $170 last week. Brent crude peaked at around $120 a barrel in mid-March before easing to roughly $113.

While trading in the benchmark window was around 50% more active than the prior month, TotalEnergies was the only player to secure enough partial contracts to build a full cargo, per the FT.

The company also used futures and options to manage risk and build exposure ahead of the price spike, according to Imsirovic.

TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné told CNBC last week that the world had “never experienced” refining margins at current levels, and described the oil products market as “dislocated.” He warned that if the conflict runs through summer, European natural gas prices could hit $40 per million British thermal units — more than double current levels of around $18.

On the production side, TotalEnergies said on 13 March that output had been shut down or was winding down in Qatar, Iraq and offshore UAE — representing around 15% of its global output. However, it noted those Middle East barrels account for only about 10% of upstream cash flow due to higher taxation, and that an $8 per barrel rise in Brent was enough to offset the lost production entirely.

Analyst View on TTE

Platts took a further step on 20 March to shore up the Dubai benchmark, suspending the negative quality adjustment for Murban crude to maximize deliverable supply. The agency said it had broad support from market participants for the move.

Last week, Jefferies analyst Mark Wilson reiterated a Buy rating on TTE, highlighting the Rio Grande LNG project as a long-term asset with strong cost positioning. Wilson estimated that disruptions to LNG supply in Qatar and the UAE would impact 2026 cash flow by around $200 million — manageable, in his view.

TTE currently holds a Moderate Buy consensus on TipRanks, with 10 Buys, 8 Holds and 1 Sell over the past three months. The average price target stands at $84.31 — around 6% below current levels.

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