Bitcoin, ether bounce is running low on fuel: Crypto Daybook Americas

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

The crypto market started the week on a positive note, but further gains may be limited as signs of fresh capital inflows remain weak.

Ether (ETH) and solana (SOL) prices have risen over 3% since midnight UTC, with BTC up nearly 2% and XRP lagging at 1.5%. The CoinDesk 20 Index has gained 2% to 1,941 points.

The demand side, however, appears weak. The 11 U.S.-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) registered a net outflow of $296.18 million, snapping a four-week streak of inflows, according to data source SoSoValue. Ether ETFs bled over $200 million. These funds are seen as a proxy for institutional appetite for cryptocurrency.

The other route through which capital flows into the digital asset market is stablecoins, or tokenized versions of fiat currencies such as the dollar, and that is also flashing a red signal.

The growth in the market cap of Tether’s USDT, the world’s largest dollar-pegged stablecoin, has stalled at around $184 billion over the past two weeks. The market cap of Circle Internet’s (CRCL) USDC, the second-largest, has declined nearly 1.5% to $77.77 billion.

“Last week, Stablecoins experienced a $-1.1 billion decrease, a negative signal, compared to previous minting, which is in the 2nd percentile. During the last 30 days, a total of $0.8 billion was minted,” Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, said in a note to clients Monday.

Veteran chart analyst Peter Brandt said bitcoin’s current price action aligns with classic technical analysis patterns, and prices could fall to as low as $49,000. Options show a bias for put options across all time frames, a sign of lingering downside fears among traders.

Still, a sudden shift in sentiment, perhaps triggered by a potential U.S.-led ceasefire in the Iran conflict, could spark a rally in bitcoin and other risk assets. However, the BTC price would need to establish a firm foothold above $75,000 to signal a full bullish reversal. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

• Crypto
• Macro
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • March 30: Nano Labs (NA), pre-market

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

• Governance votes & calls
• Unlocks
• Token Launches
  • March 30: BASED token generation event to occur.

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

Market Movements

• BTC is up 1.48% from 4 p.m. ET Sunday at $67,388.07 (24hrs: +1.41%)
• ETH is up 2.78% at $2,051.71 (24hrs: +2.87%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 2.05% at 1,940.98 (24hrs: +1.61%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 6 bps at 2.70%
• BTC funding rate is at 0.0007% (0.7939% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is up 0.23% at 100.09
• Gold futures are up 1.55% at $4,561.70
• Silver futures are up 2.38% at $71.20
• Nikkei 225 closed down 2.79% at 51,885.85
• Hang Seng closed down 0.81% at 24,750.79
• FTSE 100 is up 0.54% at 10,021.13
• Euro Stoxx 50 is unchanged at 5,501.70
• DJIA closed on Friday down 1.73% at 45,166.64
• S&P 500 closed down 1.67% at 6,368.85
• Nasdaq Composite closed down 2.15% at 20,948.36
• S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.23% at 31,960.70
• S&P 40 Latin America closed down 0.75% at 3,473.97
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 2 bps at 4.44%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.35% at 6,435.00
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.28% at 23,394.00
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 0.31% at 45,566.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 58.52% (0.21%)
• Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03048 (1.36%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,018 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $31.84
• Total fees: 1.63 BTC / $108,730
• CME Futures Open Interest: 121,295 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 14.9 oz.
• BTC vs gold market cap: 4.49%

Technical Analysis

• The chart shows weekly price swings in Nvidia (NVDA) in candlestick format.
• Prices have dropped 7% over the past two weeks, breaking out of a trendline that characterized the bullish trend from late 2022 lows.
• This breakdown suggests weakening momentum and raises the risk of a deeper correction.
• NVDA is the bellwether of all things AI and has had a positive correlation with bitcoin in the past.

Crypto Equities

• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Friday at $161.14 (–7.06%), +2.38% at $164.98 in pre-market
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $18.00 (–8.21%), +2.78% at $18.50
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.02 (–6.53%), +2.00% at $8.18
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $12.80 (–8.60%), +2.19% at $13.08
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $15.07 (–4.56%), +1.53% at $15.30
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $8.66 (–6.88%), +3.58% at $8.97
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $6.48 (–5.40%), –3.40% at $6.26
• CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $35.19 (–5.10%), +2.87% at $36.20
• Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $93.66 (–4.69%), +2.28% at $95.80
• Bullish (BLSH): closed at $34.43 (–5.52%), +0.78% at $34.70

Crypto Treasury Companies

• Strategy (MSTR): closed at $126.03 (–5.19%), +1.88% at $128.40
• Strive Asset Management (ASST): closed at $9.85 (–5.33%), –0.25% at $9.83
• Sharplink (SBET): closed at $6.04 (–7.50%), +3.57% at $6.26
• Upexi (UPXI): closed at $1.00 (–6.54%), +2.00% at $1.02
• Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.10 (–5.17%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flows: -$225.5 million
• Cumulative net flows: $55.91 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flows: -$48.5 million
• Cumulative net flows: $11.55 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~5.71 million

Source: Farside Investors

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