Bitcoin Flashes ‘Warning Sign’ With Nearly Half of BTC Supply Sitting at a Loss: Report

Holders of around 9.4 million Bitcoin, or approximately 47% of the total circulating supply, are sitting on unrealized or paper losses, according to a new report from CEX.io Research. 

That includes more than 30% of the Bitcoin held by long-term holders, or $304 billion worth of the largest crypto asset, which is now underwater—the highest share since 2023, according to the report. 

“Long-term holders are now selling at their deepest losses in three years, and the speed of the reversal indicates a sharp deterioration in confidence,” the report reads.

“The broader context makes this more concerning,” analysts added. “Bitcoin’s price has been drifting slightly higher over recent weeks, but the share of long-term holders sitting in profit has been quietly shrinking at the same time.” 

Bitcoin is roughly flat in the last 24 hours, recently changing hands around $66,567, but it has fallen around 6% in the last week of trading as the potential for escalation in the conflict in Iran has grown. 

The shift in conditions has led Bitcoin to a shaky place, according to CEX.io. The firm’s Bitcoin Impact Index, which measures Bitcoin holders and their stress levels as it relates to selling, has flashed to “high impact.” In other words, there is significant stress across Bitcoin holders and institutional capital. 

“This kind of divergence between price action and on-chain conviction has historically been a warning sign,” the report says. “For instance, similar moves occurred in mid-2018 and mid-2022 before price drops by over 25%.”

Another 25% drop would push Bitcoin below $50,000 for the first time since February 2024. As of this writing, Bitcoin is currently about 47% off its all-time high of $126,080 set in October.

The CEX.io research suggests that the new setup resembles the period of late January, which preceded the steep drop in Bitcoin prices from the mid-$90,000s to low $60,000s in early February. 

“The difference this time is that holders are not yet rushing Bitcoin to exchanges to sell. That kept February’s worst moments from becoming even worse, and it is doing the same now,” it said, adding that if it continues to hold, prices could stabilize rather than fall further. 

The cautious analysis is similar to that recently shared by VanEck, which indicated an “unusually strong demand” for downside protection on Bitcoin. Earlier this year, CryptoQuant suggested that BTC’s real bear market bottom price would be closer to $55,000, while Standard Chartered said it would hit $50,000 before rebounding towards $100,000.