COTABATO CITY, Philippines – Authorities have confirmed that the extremist group Dawlah Islamiya was behind the deadly March 28 ambush that killed five police officers in Shariff Aguak, Maguindanao del Sur, raising more concerns about security in the predominantly Muslim region as the Bangsamoro prepares for its first parliamentary elections later this year.

As investigators identified the group suspected to be behind the ambush, a conflict monitor warned that the attack reflects a broader surge in violence targeting state security forces in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM).

Rise in ‘vertical violence’

The group Climate Conflict Action Asia (CCAA) on Tuesday, March 31, said the ambush signals a troubling rise in what it described as “vertical violence,” referring to armed attacks directed against government forces.

“A surge in ambush attacks and revenge killings targeting state security forces blows the whistle on a new round of vertical violence,” the CCAA said in a statement, noting a sharp increase in such incidents during the first quarter of 2026.

Citing a monitoring system, CCAA communications manager Louise Marie Lara said at least 13 attacks against security forces and 15 other violent incidents involving armed groups, including those linked to former rebels, have already been recorded across the Bangsamoro region this year alone.

The group warned that the pattern raises serious concerns about the progress of the normalization process under the Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro (CAB), particularly efforts to dismantle armed groups and decommission weapons.

“The incident, irrespective of its cause or the perpetrators, is a shameful stain on the Bangsamoro peace process,” the monitoring group said.

PNP: It’s Dawlah Islamiya

Police said members of the Dawlah Islamiya were responsible for the ambush that took place around 9 pm on Saturday in Barangay Mother Poblacion, Shariff Aguak, Maguindanao del Sur.

Five members of the Philippine National Police’s 2nd Provincial Mobile Force Company were killed while three others were wounded when armed men suddenly opened fire on their patrol vehicle as they were returning to their headquarters after conducting patrol and police visibility operations in the town.

Authorities said the attackers also seized several firearms from the victims after the ambush.

PNP-BARMM spokesperson Captain Steffi Salanguit said investigators were still working to identify the attackers but early findings point to the extremist network operating in parts of Maguindanao del Sur.

Salanguit said the attack may reflect the group’s weakening condition rather than renewed strength.

“This type of attack may indicate their weakening forces,” and suggested that remaining members were becoming desperate to sow fear and reestablish their presence, she said.

Test mission?

Investigators were looking into reports that the ambush may have served as a “test mission” involving newly recruited members, possibly younger recruits being initiated into the group’s operations.

The extremist group has long been associated with the Islamic State and has previously been linked to militant activity in central Mindanao.

A day after the ambush, an official of the Army’s 6th Infantry Division said they were looking into a private armed group in Shariff Aguak as the likely culprit, but did not name those behind it.

CCAA, meanwhile, said it noted that the location of the ambush lies within an area members of the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) have previously been known to operate.

The monitoring group said it has documented a renewed pattern of recruitment and violence linked to the Dawlah Islamiya, particularly in parts of central Mindanao.

The BIFF is a breakaway faction of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) – the dominant group in the Bangsamoro Transition Authority (BTA) – and should not be confused with the Front’s official armed wing, the Bangsamoro Islamic Armed Forces (BIAF).

Disenchantment and recruitment

“CCAA has documented the resurgence of DI recruitment and violence, mostly concentrated in the Lanao corridor,” the group said, adding that the Shariff Aguak ambush “could indicate a show of force by the DI in the Maguindanao area.”

However, CCAA also urged caution in attributing responsibility, pointing out that the extremist label has at times been used to obscure other motives behind violent incidents in the region.

“Dawlah Islamiyah has often been used as a convenient cover for illicit activities and to lay the blame on everyone except those involved in the implementation process of the Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro,” CCAA said.

It added: “If this was indeed related to DI, it represents a repeat of the shaming tactics that helped fuel the mobilization of the youth to join their ranks during the war in Marawi, and for good reason.” 

CCAA said it also noted wide tensions and disenchantments of the Moro youth brought about by reports of alleged corruption in the BARMM.

Fragile state of peace

BARMM interim Chief Minister Abdulraof Macacua condemned the ambush, calling it “a threat to peace and order in the Bangsamoro region.”

“To the perpetrators, you better surrender because we will not let this pass without you being held accountable,” Macacua said during a visit to the wounded officers recovering in a Cotabato City hospital.

The attack comes at a crucial stage for the BARMM, which is preparing for its first regional parliamentary elections scheduled this September.

The elections are expected to mark a milestone in the seven-year-old region’s political transition under the peace agreement, shifting the Bangsamoro government from a transitional authority to a fully elected parliamentary administration.

However, observers warn that persistent violence, extremist recruitment, and unresolved clan conflicts could threaten the security environment surrounding the polls if not addressed.

For conflict monitors like CCAA, the Shariff Aguak ambush only showed the fragile state of peace in parts of Mindanao and the challenges that remain in sustaining the gains achieved since the signing of the peace agreement. – Rappler.com