Jim Cramer says oil price upsurge is over; Here’s why

The former hedge fund manager and CNBC’s most prominent stock market analyst, Jim Cramer, opined on X late in the evening of March 30 that oil prices might have ended their upsurge for the time being.

Specifically, the expert pointed toward the shares of energy giant Chevron (NYSE: CVX) and their moderate downward correction on Monday. Indeed, CVX stock declined 0.21% on March 30 to its latest closing price of $210.71 following an 11% rise through the month.

According to Jim Cramer, Chevron’s equity has, so far, been leading oil futures, meaning that a correction for CVX indicates black gold barrel prices are likely to stabilize and even drop, at least momentarily.

Are oil prices moving lower as Jim Cramer forecasted?

Looking at the oil prices themselves, the popular TV personality’s estimates appear correct for the time being. Contract for difference (CFDs) for West Texas crude are down 2.32% to $102.60 in the daily chart that Finbold retrieved from TradingView on March 31.

Similarly, CFD prices for Brent are, based on the data from the same platform, down 1.59% 

to $107. On March 30, the barrel cost peaked at approximately $110.

On the other hand, ‘a momentary top out in oil’ might swiftly prove the most salient part of Jim Cramer’s X post. Examining the Chevron stock price reveals that, in the March 31 pre-market, the share price is up 0.066% to $210.85.

Following the former hedge fund manager’s logic, the changes in the value of CVX in the extended session might indicate that oil is about to restart its rally.

Is oil headed toward $200 per barrel in 2026?

Elsewhere, late March brought a series of concerning news regarding the price of black gold. 

Specifically, analysts are estimating that a price tag of $200 per barrel is no longer out of the question and, despite the significant claimed degradation of Iran’s missile and drone capabilities, the Islamic Republic has, thus far, been demonstrating its ability to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed.

Furthermore, though Secretary Bessent recently said the U.S. is preparing to open the critical waterway, the country’s ability to do so can be questioned. Indeed, Iran does not require complete control of the area to keep its blockade in place since maintaining a credible ability to hit any ship that attempts to pass is likely to prove enough.

Oil prices are also likely to remain elevated, barring a peace agreement, as the entry of Yemen’s Ansar Allah movement into the conflict has put exports from Saudi Arabia’s western port of Yanbu at risk. Additionally, satellite images released on March 30 show that a pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz has probably been hit and damaged.

Lastly, even an immediate reopening of the critical waterway is unlikely to stabilize the market. Damage already done to facilities in the Persian Gulf means that supply cannot be fully restored as soon as hostilities cease.

Furthermore, though President Donald Trump is allegedly willing to end the war without forcing the Strait open, there are no guarantees Iran will accept the ceasefire, and even if it does, a key committee in the country’s parliament has approved a Hormuz toll.

Featured image via Shutterstock