MORNING UPDATE | Wednesday, April 1, 2026 Welcome to Q2 — markets open the new quarter on edge

🔥 BIG STORY: Iran Peace Signals vs. Strait of Hormuz Reality

Iran’s President Pezeshkian signalled readiness to end the war, while reiterating demands for full recognition of Tehran’s sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. Trump’s pause on attacking Iranian energy infrastructure expires April 6 — the market’s next major flashpoint.

📈 EQUITIES

Wall Street ended Q1 on a strong note but a brutal month. March 31 closing prices: 🇺🇸 S&P 500: +2.91% → 6,528.52 | Dow: +2.49% → 46,341 | Nasdaq: +3.83% → 21,590

Despite the rally, the S&P 500 finished March down 5.3% — its worst monthly loss since 2022, and ~7% below its January peak. US futures are pointing cautiously higher this morning.

🛢️ OIL

Brent surged 63% in March — its biggest monthly gain since 1988. WTI gained ~51%, its best month since 2020. On March 31, both eased on peace hopes: 🛢️ WTI: ~$101/bbl | Brent: ~$118/bbl

The Strait remains effectively closed. Analysts warn emergency supply buffers could run out in early-to-mid April, with prices then at risk of a sharp new leg higher.

🟡 GOLD — XAU/USD

Trading around $4,585–$4,693/oz this morning, attempting a recovery after shedding ~15% in March from its record near $5,597. Gold still ended Q1 up ~4% for the quarter. Bulls face headwinds from elevated real yields and a strong dollar; key support sits at $4,373, resistance at $4,695–$4,700.

💶 FOREX

🇪🇺 EUR/USD: Recovering above 1.1500, helped by dollar softness and weak JOLTS data. 1.17 remains heavy resistance; key support at 1.1470. 🇬🇧 GBP/USD: Back above 1.3200, near-term range 1.32–1.35. 💵 DXY: ~99.55–100.46 — softening slightly after March’s biggest monthly gain since July.

₿ CRYPTO

Bitcoin trading around $66,400–$68,100, down over 20% since the war began, pressured by high energy costs, risk-off flows, and fading crypto-legislation hopes. Ether, XRP and Solana posting modest gains.

📅 TODAY’S KEY DATA

🗂️ ADP Employment (forecast: 41K) | 🏭 ISM Manufacturing PMI (forecast: 52.3) | 🔥 ISM Prices (forecast: 73.8) | 🛢️ EIA Oil Inventories | 🎤 Fed’s Barr speaks

👉 Friday’s NFP is the week’s main event.

⚡ A ceasefire breakthrough could spark a strong rally across all markets. Re-escalation after April 6 could send oil surging and crush risk assets. Stay sharp. 📊

All data as of April 1, 2026 morning. Not investment advice. 🌐 NordFX | nordfx.com

🌅 MORNING UPDATE | Wednesday, April 1, 2026 Welcome to Q2 — markets open the new quarter on edge was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.