There Is a Significant Divergence in XRP’s Spot and Derivatives Market Data: What Does This Mean?

Amr Taha, an analyst known for his analyses of cryptocurrency markets, shared a new assessment revealing a notable divergence between the spot and derivatives markets for XRP. According to the analysis, Binance data in particular indicates the formation of conflicting signals within the market structure.

According to data shared by Taha, the CVD indicator for XRP in the spot market increased from approximately -$250 million to +$238 million between February 28 and March 31. This strong turnaround of approximately $488 million indicates a significant increase in buying appetite on the spot market. This is considered an important signal that investors are directly accumulating assets and that selling pressure has relatively decreased.

However, a more cautious outlook is evident in the derivatives markets. Between March 25 and March 31, CVD (Current Derivatives Deposit) in perpetual futures contracts fell from -$1.57 billion to -$1.79 billion, registering an additional decrease of approximately $220 million. This picture reveals that selling pressure continues in leveraged trading and that the improvement in the spot market has not yet been fully confirmed by the derivatives markets.

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On the other hand, a significant recovery was observed in leverage dynamics. Open interest changes, after falling to levels as low as -28% around March 24th, showed a strong recovery of approximately 33 points, rising above +5% in the latest data. This indicates that the use of leverage is increasing again in the market and investors are returning to taking positions.

The liquidation map offers a critical detail about the current structure. According to the analysis, most of the key liquidation levels are located above the current price. This indicates that if the price moves upwards, investors, especially those holding short positions, may face the risk of being squeezed.

When the overall picture is evaluated, two different dynamics stand out in the XRP market: strengthening demand on the spot side and a continued cautious stance in the derivatives market. According to analyst Taha, these divergences could support upward movements in the short term. In particular, the fact that the futures contract CVD remains negative despite increasing open interest indicates that short-weighted positioning continues in the market, and this could increase the risk of a short squeeze in a potential rise.

*This is not investment advice.

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