Toncoin braces for $80M token unlock this week: will TON price crash further?

Toncoin faces an $80 million token unlock on October 23. Can the TON price withstand the pressure?

Toncoin (TON) price has recently broken below a critical support level at $2.50-$2.55, which is aligned with the 0.618 Fib, a zone that had held firm for months. The breakdown occurred on October 10, coinciding with a massive market liquidation event that wiped out nearly $19 billion in leveraged positions across the crypto market. During that session, TON price plunged from an opening price of $2.74 to as low as $0.54, marking an 80% intraday crash before quickly recovering.

Following the liquidation cascade, TON price staged a brief technical rebound, but momentum has since faded. TON is now consolidating above the new short-term support around $2.00, trading at $2.19 at press time. The former support at $2.50 has now flipped into major resistance.

TON price post-unlock outlook

With an $80 million unlock set for October 23, TON’s chances of reclaiming that resistance as support are not looking good. The RSI continues to track below its long-term descending trendline that began in late July. Each rally attempt since then has resulted in a lower RSI high, signaling that momentum remains firmly in bearish territory. At present, RSI sits near 35, showing weak recovery and limited buying conviction.

If buying pressure fails to strengthen, a rejection near the $2.50 resistance zone could trigger a renewed decline toward the next Fibonacci support around $1.83. A break below that level would further confirm the bearish continuation pattern, potentially setting the stage for a deeper retracement toward the $1.50 region.