DENVER, COLORADO – NOVEMBER 16: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs hugs Bo Nix #10 of the Denver Broncos after the game at Empower Field At Mile High on November 16, 2025 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images)
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If the season were to end today, none of the preseason AFC Divisional favorites would win their division.
Before the year, the Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens, Houston Texans, and Kansas City Chiefs were expected to represent their division.
Instead, the New England Patriots, Pittsburgh Steelers, Indianapolis Colts, and Denver Broncos are atop their respective standings.
Between the four, the Broncos hold the largest divisional lead, which came off their come-from-behind victory over the Chiefs in Week 11.
Despite trailing with under five minutes remaining, back-to-back field goal drives finished by kicker Will Lutz gave Denver a buzzer-beater finish to improve to 9-2, while Kansas City dropped to 5-5.
If these trends continue, it would be the first time since 2015 that the Chiefs failed to win the AFC West.
In fact, the Chiefs are currently at risk of missing the playoffs, which would be the first time since 2014.
Is it time to panic in Arrowhead? Or is the best football ahead for Kansas City?
To answer this, let’s look into the Chiefs’ 5-5 record.
KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI – OCTOBER 19: Rashee Rice #4 of the Kansas City Chiefs celebrates with his teammate Xavier Worthy #1 of the Kansas City Chiefs during an NFL football game against the Las Vegas Raiders at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on October 19, 2025 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images)
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In terms of overall production as a team, the Chiefs are still among the best in the NFL.
Currently, they have the 4th-ranked defense, allowing just 18.1 points per game, and the 9th-ranked offense in the NFL, scoring 25.4 points per game.
Defensively, they have followed the “bend, don’t break” mentality of several Steve Spagnuolo defenses. Despite allowing 296.8 yards per game, the Chiefs can hold teams to under 20 points per game due to their effectiveness in the red zone.
On the year, the Chiefs have a 55.6% defense red zone touchdown rate, while being amongst the top of the league in terms of red zone trips for the opponents.
This ability to hold the opponent to field goals has kept the door open for the offense.
In the Chiefs’ five losses, however, they have averaged 21.2 points per game, compared to 29.6 in wins.
This 21.2 points per game in losses is a consistent average, too, as their lowest point total of the year was 17 points against the Eagles.
Because of this offensive consistency and the defense’s ability to hold teams to under 30 points in all but one game this year, they have found themselves with a chance to win in every game this season.
Coming off last year, where they were 11-0 in one-score games, this seemed to be a recipe for success for the experienced Chiefs roster.
In 2025, however, the luck has turned for Kansas City, as all five of their losses have been decided by one possession.
While it is bold to assume 16 games over the past two seasons were a matter of “luck” as opposed to game script or late-game execution, the overall statistics do point towards this year’s Chiefs team being better than last.
For one, Patrick Mahomes is not only having a better year than last, averaging a 95.9 Quarterback Rate and 72.7 QBR in 2025.
Mahomes is averaging 262.5 yards per game on a 64.5 completion percentage, with 18 touchdowns to 6 interceptions.
This has come with better weapons to throw to, as Mahomes currently has nine receivers averaging more than one catch per game.
DENVER, COLORADO – NOVEMBER 16: Travis Kelce #87 of the Kansas City Chiefs celebrates a touchdown against the Denver Broncos during the fourth quarter at Empower Field At Mile High on November 16, 2025 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images)
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This includes tight end Travis Kelce, who is quietly having his best production since 2020.
The Chiefs’ rushing attack has lacked effectiveness this year, ranking 16th in the NFL.
This is not an Achilles Heel for the Chiefs within their championship window, however, as in the back-to-back championship seasons for Kansas City, the team only ranked 20th and 19th in the NFL in those seasons.
Instead, Andy Reid’s creativity uses the short passing game and run-pass option as a pseudo rushing attack for clock management.
This, paired with a defensive approach that naturally drains more clock, typically allows the Chiefs to remain within striking distance of any game.
And, when you have a 30-year-old quarterback with three Super Bowl championships, that is a good position to consistently be in.
While that formula has not resulted in a victory yet, it is safe to say that Kansas City would be wise not to make any drastic changes.
Instead, they can justify the 0-5 outlier in one-score games with the fact that they have played the fifth-toughest schedule in the NFL.
Of the Chiefs’ remaining seven games, four of them (Colts, Texans, Chargers, and Broncos) are not going to be any easier than their initial ten games.
However, all four of those contests are in Aarowhead. The Chiefs’ remaining road games are against the Cowboys, Titans, and Raiders.
The Broncos team looks like a major threat to the AFC, with currently the third-best defense in football and an uncanny ability to win games late.
The Chargers, when healthy, have already defeated the Chiefs, and can be one of the most efficient offenses in football, averaging 26.8 points per game in wins.
However, it may be too soon to deem the Chiefs’ AFC West dynasty over, with potentially their best football ahead.
Ahead of their Week 17 rematch, the Broncos need to continue to take care of business to potentially put the division out of reach.
If they fail to do so, do not be surprised if the Chiefs somehow find their way into another home playoff game.
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/tylersmall/2025/11/18/why-there-is-no-reason-to-worry-about-the-kansas-city-chiefs/
