XRP Confirms Monthly Trend Shift vs. Bitcoin: Why 41% Drop Is Now Base Case

The technical picture on the monthly chart by TradingView for XRP against Bitcoin is giving a clear bearish signal. Following the close of the March candle below the critical level of 0.0000215 BTC per XRP, the asset risks entering a phase of prolonged decline against the leading cryptocurrency.

The key negative marker on the chart is the consolidation of XRP/BTC below the middle Bollinger Band at the close of March 2026. The middle line, which long acted as dynamic support, has now turned into resistance. Historically, a breakdown on the monthly chart signals a transfer of control to sellers for an extended period, ranging from several months to a year.

From $1.31 to $0.57? How 41% XRP/BTC drop could materialize by 2027

According to the principles of the Bollinger Bands indicator, once the middle line is lost, the price center of gravity shifts toward the lower band. Its current level stands at 0.00001138 BTC, which, relative to current quotes, implies a further 41% decline for XRP against Bitcoin.

The negative outlook is reinforced by the broader crypto market backdrop. Bitcoin is currently showing weakness, and many analysts believe that by the end of 2026, its price could fall below $50,000. If Bitcoin dominance rises or the market continues its broader decline, alternative cryptocurrencies, and XRP in particular, will be under greater pressure.

If we operate with the numbers and assume a Bitcoin price of $50,000, then a 41% decline of XRP against Bitcoin would imply an XRP price of around $0.57. This is not unrealistic, as the token traded at similar levels before the rally at the end of 2024.

Without a return above the middle Bollinger Band in the coming months, a move toward 0.00001138 BTC remains a matter of time. As a result, 2026 could become a year of capitulation for XRP holders against Bitcoin.