Analyst sets date when Tesla stock will hit $510

Tesla’s (NASDAQ: TSLA) vehicle deliveries and energy deployment both fell short of consensus estimates in the previous quarter, an April 22 research note from Cantor Fitzgerald highlighted.

The financial services company also noted a decline in production compared to the same period last year. Accordingly, it warns that the softer operating performance is likely to translate into modest margins and negative free cash flow for the quarter, with the next earnings call scheduled after today’s market close.

However, Cantor still maintains long-term optimism, describing 2026 as a “transitional year” for the electric vehicle (EV) maker. Specifically, it expects Tesla to increasingly emphasize autonomy, artificial intelligence (AI), and robotics as core growth drivers.

Thus, the key initiatives will include the Robotaxi platform, the Optimus humanoid robot, and broader autonomous vehicle deployments in foreign markets, particularly in Europe. These efforts, Cantor argued, could also be supported by elevated capital expenditures and plans to ramp production capacity.

Ultimately, Cantor reiterated its “Overweight” rating on Tesla and kept its twelve-month price target of $510 unchanged.

Tesla sentiment mixed

Tesla reported first-quarter 2026 vehicle deliveries of 358,023, missing consensus expectations of 365,645 but exceeding the 336,381 units delivered in the same period last year. As already mentioned, production was down during the same period as well, falling from 446,063 to 408,386 vehicles. 

Wall Street expects Tesla to post roughly $21.1 billion in revenue this quarter, alongside a GAAP gross margin of about 17.5%. Adjusted EBITDA is projected at $2.4 billion, with non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $0.30. At the same time, free cash flow is negative, at approximately $1.78 billion.

Looking ahead, Cybercab, Tesla Semi, and Megapack 3 programs appear on track for volume production in fiscal 2026. Furthermore, the company is also advancing development of its highly-anticipated humanoid robot Optimus, with initial deliveries expedited in the second half of 2027.

Broadly, Wall Street consensus estimates currently point to a “Hold” rating, with 13 “Buys,” 11 “Holds,” and six “Sells” recorded by TipRanks over the past three months.

The average price target sits at $413.89, implying a 6.49% upside from the current levels. However, Wall Street price targets span a wide range from $25 to $600, showing how uncertain analysts are.

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