What smart money thinks OpenAI, SpaceX & Anthropic are worth

On May 19, Polymarket opened a new kind of market: bets on what private companies are worth. OpenAI, SpaceX, Anthropic, Stripe, Databricks, Anduril and a dozen others now have valuation “ladders” — a stack of yes/no thresholds (will it hit $1T, $2T, $3T by a given date) settled against Nasdaq Private Market data.

Within a day, hundreds of wallets had taken positions. We filtered that flow down to the ones that matter — wallets with $200K+ in verified lifetime profit and no farmer pattern — and found something the headlines missed.

Smart money and the crowd agree these companies are enormous. They sharply disagree on the ceiling. On every ladder, proven wallets draw a line and fade the crowd’s optimism above it.

The single biggest disagreement: Anthropic at $1.25T

Start with the cleanest divergence in the entire dataset. Anthropic’s “valuation hits $1.25T by December 31” market is priced by the crowd at 76% yes. Among smart-money wallets in that market, just 3% are on yes.

That’s a 73-point gap on the same contract.

It isn’t a one-off. Walk the full Anthropic ladder and a wall appears right around $1.1–1.25T:

The crowd treats the climb from $1T to $1.25T as a coin-flip-plus. Smart money treats it as a wall. Below $1.1T they’re long; at $1.25T they step off entirely.

OpenAI: the line sits at $1 trillion

OpenAI’s ladder shows the same shape, with the ceiling one rung lower. Smart money is comfortable up to roughly $900B, then fades hard:

At $900B, crowd and smart money are aligned — both around 80%. One rung up, at the symbolic $1T mark, the crowd still gives it 64% while smart money collapses to 17%. The trillion-dollar headline is exactly where proven wallets get off.

SpaceX: yes to the IPO, no to the $2T+ hype

SpaceX is the most-traded name in the category, and its ladder is the most informative because smart money is confident on both ends — strongly yes early, strongly no late.

187 proven wallets back a June 30 IPO. 159 agree it clears $1T. Then the same cohort flips: at $2T the crowd is still 71% yes while smart money is 82% no, and not a single smart wallet in the $3T market is on yes.

The translation: smart money is betting SpaceX goes public and is genuinely worth north of a trillion — and that the $2T-plus numbers floating around are hype.

The pattern: a smart-money ceiling on every name

Stack the three together and the same behaviour repeats:

• SpaceX — long through $1T, fades above $2T.
• OpenAI — long through $900B, fades at $1T.
• Anthropic — long through $1.1T, fades at $1.25T.

Retail positioning drifts up the ladder, paying meaningful odds for outcomes two and three rungs above the consensus floor. Smart money clusters tightly at the base, agrees the company is huge, and refuses to follow the crowd up the curve.

This is the same retail-vs-smart split we see across Polymarket as a whole — retail anchors on the exciting headline number, smart money prices the boring base rate — only now it’s pointed at the most-hyped private companies in the world.

How we computed this

The numbers above come from on-chain positions, not opinions.

• Smart money = wallets with $200K+ verified lifetime profit on Polymarket and no farmer pattern (we exclude wallets that pad volume on foregone-conclusion markets). This is the same cohort that resolves markets correctly ~67% of the time, versus a 7.9% retail win rate.
• Smart money on YES = the share of smart-wallet capital sitting on the YES side of each market, aggregated from live positions.
• Crowd odds = the current market price, which is the crowd’s implied probability.

Two honest caveats. First, these markets are days old — dollar positions are still small, so the signal lives in the direction and count of proven wallets, not in position size yet. Second, valuation markets resolve against Nasdaq Private Market data on a fixed date; a late funding round can move them fast. We’ll be watching whether the smart-money ceiling holds or lifts as liquidity grows.

What to take from it

• The trillion-dollar headlines are where smart money stops. OpenAI at $1T, Anthropic at $1.25T, SpaceX at $2T — each is the exact rung where proven wallets fade the crowd.
• The base case is bullish. This isn’t a bearish call on these companies — smart money is long the first big threshold on all three. It’s a bet against the higher numbers.
• Watch the divergence markets, not the consensus ones. A market where smart money and the crowd agree (SpaceX $1T) carries no signal. A market where they’re 70 points apart (Anthropic $1.25T) is where the information is.

Polymarket’s Pre-IPO category is new enough that the smart wallets are still establishing positions. That’s exactly when the early read is most valuable — before liquidity floods in and the divergence prices away.

You can track live whale consensus on every Pre-IPO market — OpenAI, SpaceX, Anthropic, Stripe, Databricks and more — on the Pre-IPO markets hub, and see the wallets behind these positions on the leaderboard.

Originally published at https://orcalayer.com on May 20, 2026.

What smart money thinks OpenAI, SpaceX & Anthropic are worth was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.