XRP Builds Case For $22 With Major Chart Shift – But Only If This Breakout Retest Holds

XRP is exhibiting a large-scale technical formation on its monthly chart that has drawn significant attention. Egrag Crypto, a widely followed XRP analyst on X, has identified a macro W pattern developing across years of price history. 

This is a structure that, if it plays out in full, has a 25% to 35% chance of carrying the XRP price to a target of $22. The pattern structure has a higher chance of bullish continuation, but only if key levels continue to hold in the short term.

Macro W Formation Shows Breakout And Retest In Progress

Egrag’s chart analysis shows a large W-shaped structure developing across higher timeframes on the XRP chart. The W formation spans years of XRP price action on the monthly timeframe, and the first leg is already completed. The second leg has now entered into a breakout followed by a pullback into the former resistance zone.

That pullback is currently playing out around the $1.60 region, which is shown in the chart below as a bullish hammer candle. The breakout above resistance has already occurred, and price action is now attempting to confirm that level as support. The presence of this bullish hammer candle shows that buyers are stepping in during the retest.

As long as XRP holds within the $1.60 to $1.80 range, then the bullish structure is still in place. A loss of this area would begin to compromise the pattern’s structural integrity. Invalidation, by contrast, will happen if the XRP price undergoes a breakdown through $1.40 to $1.20 or a continued failure to break above $2.00.

XRP Price Chart. Source: @egragcrypto On X

Price Targets To Watch Out For

Although the analysis projects a much higher target for XRP, the immediate focus is on reclaiming $2.00. Egrag identifies this level as the key trigger that would shift the structure from a simple retest into a confirmed continuation.

A move above $2.00, followed by sustained acceptance, would indicate that XRP has regained strength after the pullback. From there, the next level to watch sits around $3.30, which aligns with the upper boundary of the current range shown on the chart. 

Only after a full expansion through these levels would the $22 target begin to come into view. The projected $22 target is based on a measured move from the macro W structure, combined with the neck resistance, historical expansion multiples, and macro cycle behavior. However, Egrag does not treat this outcome as guaranteed.

Egrag was explicit about the chances of XRP’s next move from the current price. A full expansion to $22 carries a 25% to 35% likelihood, while a partial move into the $3 to $8 range is assigned a 50% to 60% probability. An outright failure and break below $1.20 is given just a 10% to 15% probability. At the time of writing, XRP is trading at $1.40.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView