Will Trump Face Impeachment Again as Odds Reach 70%

Key Insights

• There is a 70% odd that Trump will be impeached before 2027, according to Kalshi.
• Midterms election, which many expect Democrats to win, will determine President Trump’s fate.
• Republicans losing control of Congress could slow down pro-crypto legislative efforts.

The odds of US President Donald Trump being impeached have risen to 70% on the prediction market platform Kalshi. The contract, which asks “Will Trump be impeached?”, now has 70% expecting this to happen before January 1, 2028. However, 13% even expect it before 2027.

The odds are not surprising given recent developments in the US. Trump’s approval ratings have been declining as Democrats gain momentum for the midterms.

Mid-term Elections Could Determine Trump’s Impeachment

The high odds of impeachment are likely connected to the mid-term elections scheduled for November 2026.

All 435 House seats are up for reelection in the midterms, along with about a third of the Senate. Analysts suggest this could open a path for Democrats to regain control of the House.

Some argue that if Democrats regain control of the House, they could initiate impeachment proceedings against Trump. Opposition leaders have accused him of violating constitutional rules, which they believe would justify such action.

Critics argue that U.S. actions in Venezuela, the war in Iran, and aggressive anti-immigration crackdowns have fueled opposition backlash. They believe these controversies could serve as grounds for impeachment proceedings.

Even Trump himself has warned about the possibility of an impeachment earlier this year. He noted that Democrats will impeach if the Republicans lose control of Congress during the mid-terms election.

While the statement then appears to be an attempt to galvanise Republicans, it is not entirely surprising.

He was impeached twice by the House of Representatives during his first term, when Democrats held the majority. Both proceedings highlighted deep partisan divisions over his conduct in office.

However, the Senate could not proceed because it did not have the two-thirds majority required to approve the impeachment.

Interestingly, the likelihood of Democrats winning the House in the midterms is increasing as Trump’s approval rating falls.

With oil prices rising globally, a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll shows that only 36% of Americans approved of Trump’s performance. On the other hand, 62% disapproved.

It is not certain that Democrats will win the House in the midterms. However. 85% odds on Polymarket and 84.8% on Kalshi indicate it is a strong possibility.

A recent Democrat’s victory in the special election for Florida House District 87 has raised hopes. District 87 covers the Trump Mar-a-Lago estate, making it a win in Trump’s backyard.

What Trump Impeachment Could Mean for Crypto

Meanwhile, Trump’s impeachment and Democrats taking control of the US House of Representatives could slow pro-crypto legislative efforts.

Since taking office, President Trump has initiated several executive moves to enable crypto. This includes appointing pro-crypto heads to several federal agencies.

However, the only legislative achievement so far is the GENIUS Stablecoin Act. The CLARITY Act, which many believe will regulate the entire sector, has faced significant delays in the Senate.

The latest revision of the bill continues to face opposition, particularly from Coinbase, over the restriction on paying stablecoin yields. Coinbase has continued to insist that no bill is better than a bad one, even as negotiations continue.

Observers warn that if the bill fails before the midterms, it may encounter stronger resistance afterward. Many expect opposition to intensify once Democrats gain control of the House.

While the crypto industry has sought to be bipartisan, Trump’s strong backing in the 2024 election continues to dominate narratives.

Trump has also been very supportive of the industry since becoming president. With this, many Democrats are criticising him for personally benefiting from the pro-crypto policies.

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