Stellar Price Prediction: Historic 10x Pattern Forms on the XLM Chart

Stellar is starting to appear on people’s radar again, and this time it’s not only about a quick bounce. There’s a bigger pattern forming in the background, one that looks very familiar if you remember how things played out back in 2017.

A recent post from analyst CW identifies this exact idea. The structure developing now looks a lot like the one that came before XLM’s last major run. And if that comparison holds, this current phase could be more than just sideways movement; it could be the calm before a much bigger move.

A Stellar setup that feels familiar

What CW pointed out is actually pretty straightforward. Back in 2017, the XLM price formed a base, tapped support twice, then spent some time consolidating before taking off. That same kind of behavior is starting to show up again.

We had a look at the long-term chart, and the alignment is hard to ignore. The XLM price has been moving inside a large ascending channel that stretches all the way back to 2016. Over the years, price has respected both the lower and upper boundaries of that channel.

Right now, it’s near the lower end again. That’s typically where accumulation happens before stronger moves begin.

There’s another piece that makes this setup really interesting: the wave structure. In the last cycle, XLM went through a Wave 1 push, followed by a Wave 2 pullback. That pullback basically set the stage for the big rally that came after.

Back then, XLM climbed from around $0.08 to roughly $0.60 in late 2024, think of that as the new Wave 1. Afterward, it dipped back into the $0.10–$0.13 range, forming what looks like Wave 2.

Now, the price is starting to pick up again. If history repeats itself, the next phase is usually the most exciting, the one where things really start to move fast.

On-chain data shows early signs of stability

Recent data from Glassnode gives a bit more context to where the XLM price stands right now. Over the past week, the market cap dropped from about $5.85 billion to $5.43 billion before recovering toward $5.60 billion, closely tracking the move from $0.18 down to $0.16 and back up slightly.

The decline wasn’t extreme, which points to steady selling instead of panic. The small recovery that followed hints that buyers are still active at these levels.

At the same time, the XLM price remains over 80% below its all-time high near $0.938. That’s a deep drawdown, but it’s also the kind of range where previous cycles have found a base before moving higher.

XLM price analysis: Daily and 4-hour charts

Even with the bigger picture looking promising, the short-term setup still has a few hurdles.

We had a look at the XLM chart on lower timeframes, and it’s clear that things aren’t fully aligned yet. The XLM price is still below key moving averages, which shows buyers haven’t taken full control.

4-hour XLM price chart analysis.

There’s also a clear resistance zone between $0.184 and $0.190 that keeps pushing price back. Until that level breaks cleanly, upside attempts could struggle. On the downside, support between $0.144 and $0.148 has been holding up well. That area has been tested multiple times and continues to act as a cushion for now.

Momentum isn’t giving a strong signal either. RSI is below neutral on shorter timeframes, and volume has been easing off. That usually points to consolidation, but it doesn’t give a clear direction yet.

Even with some hesitation in the short term, the bigger picture is what’s catching attention. The XLM price is still more than 80% below its all-time high. In past cycles, that kind of drawdown has often lined up with accumulation phases before major recoveries.

Daily XLM price chart analysis.

If the ascending channel continues to hold, the upside potential becomes much more interesting. The upper boundary of that channel, projected forward, points toward levels between $1.70 and $4.00 or even higher.

That might sound ambitious, but it lines up with how XLM has moved in previous cycles when everything comes together.

What comes next for Stellar

For this setup to really play out, a few key things need to happen: The XLM price needs to break above the $0.184–$0.190 resistance zone and stay above it. That would be one of the first signs that buyers are stepping in with more intent.

Holding the $0.144 support zone is just as important. If that level starts to give way, the structure weakens and opens the door for a deeper move. Beyond that, reclaiming key moving averages would help confirm that the trend is starting to turn.

Right now, the XLM price is in a pretty interesting spot. The long-term structure looks very similar to what came before one of its biggest rallies, and that’s why people are paying attention.

At the same time, the short-term setup still needs to improve. Resistance is still holding, momentum is still developing, and confirmation hasn’t come through yet.  If history ends up repeating itself, this consolidation phase could be the setup for something much bigger. 

CoinCodex’s 1-month XLM price prediction has the token around $0.1985. That’s a modest bump from the current $0.18 level, assuming market sentiment holds and XLM can test that key resistance near $0.20.