Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Supply Metrics Near Historic Bear Market Levels

Key Insights:

• Recent Bitcoin price prediction data indicates the total amount of BTC supply in profit and loss has neared levels seen in past bear markets.
• According to CryptoQuant, 11.2M of the Bitcoin supply is in profit, while 8.2M is in loss.
• However, the loss levels are below the 2020 cycle low peak of 10.6M BTC.

Bitcoin prediction data shows that the amount of Bitcoin currently in a loss is lower than in 2022’s bear market. At the time of writing, 8.2 million BTC are in the red, according to on-chain data from CryptoQuant. Experts claim Bitcoin’s supply metrics indicate the market is approaching bear-cycle levels.

BTC Supply in Profit Suggests a Bearish Bitcoin Price Prediction

The amount of Bitcoin supply sitting in profit is now approaching levels usually seen in a bear market, according to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost. When writing, about 11.2 million BTC remain in profit. That is not far from the last bear market low, when roughly 9 million BTC were still above their cost basis.

At the same time, pressure is building on the other side of the market. CryptoQuant data shows that around 8.2 million Bitcoin are now being held at a loss.

Glassnode data backs that trend. It shows the market has reached loss levels not seen since late 2022, a sign that more holders are now under stress. This trend also shapes the current Bitcoin price prediction, pointing to conditions similar to past bear market phases.

Darkfost said the shift is notable. He pointed out that during the last bear market, this figure climbed to about 10.6 million BTC. That’s why the latest move is drawing attention, as supply conditions are getting close to what was seen during past cycle lows.

With global uncertainty still rising, many are asking whether Bitcoin has more room to fall. Even so, these on-chain signals may offer a clue. When key Bitcoin metrics move toward levels seen at previous bottoms, it can suggest the market is approaching a turning point.

The analyst said this points to a clear sign of undervaluation in the market as per his Bitcoin price prediction.

It matters because Bitcoin is now trading in conditions similar to those seen during the last bear market. Such levels have often appeared when the market was under heavy pressure and nearing deeply discounted territory.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Experts See Market Pressure, Not Undervaluation

Bitrue research lead, Andri Fauzan Adziima, saw it differently. He said the data points to rising market stress, not a clear sign that Bitcoin is already undervalued.

He noted that real capitulation bottoms have looked far worse. In 2022, more than half of the Bitcoin supply was in the red, while the share in profit fell to around 45% or lower.

The expert also stated other key indicators, including NUPL and MVRV, had dropped to far more extreme levels. That, in his view, means the market has not yet reached the kind of deep pain often seen at a true bottom.

He said the current Bitcoin price prediction data looks more like the early to middle stage of a bear market, not the final washout. In his view, Bitcoin could be building a structural bottom near $55,000.

Even so, he warned that the market may not be done yet. More downside, or at least a longer period of sideways trading, could still come before conditions fully reset.

So far, Bitcoin (BTC) price has fallen about 52% from its all-time high in this cycle. That drop is still much smaller than in past bear markets, where declines from the top ranged from 77% to 84%.

This gap matters. It suggests the market has taken a hit, but it has not yet reached the kind of deep drawdown seen at earlier cycle bottoms.

Bitcoin Struggles When the US Dollar is Strong

Bitcoin author Timothy Peterson said on X that Bitcoin price usually struggles when the US dollar stays strong and the Chinese yuan weakens. He said the reason is fairly simple. A stronger dollar often points to tighter global liquidity, which tends to put pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin.

At the same time, higher US yields can pull money toward cash and bonds. Meanwhile, a softer policy in China can add to the cautious mood in global markets.

He said that the picture is unlikely to change soon. In his view, Bitcoin may only get real relief once US interest rates begin to fall and the dollar loses some of its appeal. For now, that shift does not seem imminent but might occur between the second half of 2026 and the end of the year.

That view aligns with recent market action and various Bitcoin price predictions from top experts. Over the past two months, the US dollar index, or DXY, has risen by about 5%, according to TradingView.