TRUMP drops 48% YTD – Can a $1.71 mln whale buy reverse the trend?

Official Trump [TRUMP] has continued to trade within a steep downtrend since speculative demand from the U.S. President’s dinner faded nearly a month ago. 

Since dropping from $4.4, the memecoin has largely traded below $3. At press time, it traded at $2.8, down 2.69% on the daily charts, adding to a 48% YTD drop.  

TRUMP’s continued decline has pushed established investors away from the market, while some speculators are beginning to enter.

Whales signal a comeback with 600k TRUMP

With the memecoin’s continued drop, its demand has largely faded, further stretching the market. 

In fact, investors, especially whales, have mostly disappeared from the market. Looking at CryptoQuant’s Spot Average Order Size data, the memecoin has not seen large whale orders over the past week. 

This showed reduced whale participation, indicating whales are mostly sitting on the sidelines. Often, reduced whale activity, especially on the buy side, has significantly weakened asset price action. 

Regardless of these conditions, some large entities have shown a willingness to gamble. Thus, despite the continued market weakness, whales have continued to take up positions, especially incentivized by Donald Trump’s dinner party. 

According to Lookonchain, a newly created wallet withdrew 600,529 TRUMP worth $1.71 million from Bybit. The whale purchase signals a major return for high-net-worth investors who have previously boosted the memecoin’s price action. 

Sellers still dominate the market

Although TRUMP saw some whale buying, the memecoin remains under extreme selling pressure. Looking at the Spot Taker CVD, the memecoin shows seller dominance, with sellers aggressively exiting at $2.9 and $2.8.

This suggests that sellers have dumped every time TRUMP attempted to flip $3, causing a continued downtrend.

On Binance in particular, sellers have dominated the market over the past month. Coinalyze data showed that the memecoin recorded 111 million in sell volume compared to 104 million in Buy Volume.

The memecoin’s net buying has remained negative, currently sitting around -172 million, a clear sign of aggressive selling. Often, increased selling pressure accelerates downward momentum, leading to more losses.

What’s next for the memecoin?

Despite the recent whale buying, the bearish structure remains intact, with bears having total control of the market.

In fact, the downside momentum remains strong, as evidenced by the Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI). The momentum indicator has remained within negative territory and made another bearish crossover within this zone.

The crossover signaled the likelihood of the trend’s continuation. Likewise, while the memecoin’s Future Grand Trend shows an upside spike, it also shows a potential dip below $2.

Therefore, if the weakness persists, TRUMP will drop towards $2, with $1.5 as critical support. However, if whales return, incentivized by speculation about Trump’s dinner, the memecoin could rebound towards the $4 resistance level.

Final Summary

• A whale purchased 600,529 TRUMP, worth $1.71 million, incentivized by the President’s dinner.
• The memecoin remains stuck within a strong bearish structure, risking a drop below $2.