XRP Rally Hits the Wall That Triggered January’s 50% Crash

XRP rallies into the BMSB POC zone as Bitcoin reclaims $78K, but analyst ChartNerdTA warns this mirrors the setup that triggered a 50% drop in January 2026.

XRP is climbing again. Bitcoin just crossed back above $78,000. On the surface, the market looks like it’s turning a corner.

It probably isn’t, at least not yet.

The XRP relief push is running directly into the Bull Market Support Band’s Point of Control, the same technical zone that preceded a 50% price collapse in January 2026. That alone should give bulls pause.

The Zone That Already Broke XRP Once

ChartNerdTA, writing on X, put it plainly. He said he doesn’t trust the current relief for XRP, Bitcoin, or most other assets catching bids right now. His view: many coins are just rallying into major resistance, not breaking through it.

The BMSB POC zone is where that resistance sits. ChartNerdTA pointed out this same configuration opened up a 50% drop in January 2026. The current rally is pushing XRP straight back into it.

He was careful to note it doesn’t have to play out the same way. But no signs have confirmed a bottom. None.

The chart tells that story clearly. Two BMSB rejections are already marked on XRP’s price history. The first came in mid-2025. The second followed early in 2026. Both sent the price sharply lower after initial contact with the band.

Bitcoin Reclaims $78K, But That Changes Little

WatcherGuru reported on X that Bitcoin reclaimed the $78,000 level. That news helped fuel sentiment across the board, XRP included.

Bitcoin recovery matters. Still, a reclaim of $78K doesn’t erase overhead resistance sitting above multiple assets. ChartNerdTA’s concern isn’t about Bitcoin’s dollar level. It’s about where coins are rallying to and what waits there.

XRP currently trades near $1.63 to $1.64 based on the chart. The BMSB bands sit at $1.6354 on the red line and $1.5995 on the blue. Price is threading right through them.

Source:  WatcherGuru 

History Rhymes at the BMSB

The January 2026 rejection followed a similar structure. XRP pushed into the band. It stalled. Then it dropped roughly 50% from that contact point, eventually finding lows near $1.20.

That’s the playbook ChartNerdTA is watching for again.

To be clear, the situation remains open. A confirmed bottom would change the technical picture. Sustained price action above the BMSB with volume and follow-through would matter. But right now, none of that has shown up.

The relief is real. The resistance is also real.

XRP at the POC, no confirmation, and a previous 50% drop from this exact zone. The setup speaks for itself.

Disclaimer: This article is based on technical analysis and news reporting only. It is not financial or investment advice.

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