Deutsche Bank: Bitcoin could join central bank reserves by 2030

Deutsche Bank (DBK) has said that Bitcoin could appear on central bank balance sheets by 2030, coexisting with gold as a complementary hedge asset. However, the bank has said that Gold will keep its lead in official holdings for now.

According to the German lender, the more Bitcoin’s (BTC) volatility falls, the more its acceptance grows, and the currency is adopted by companies, retail investors, and governments.

Now, Bitcoin’s volatility is going down, which has been a problem for a long time in terms of its reserve status. In August, its 30-day volatility hit an all-time low, even as its price broke records above $123,500. This suggests that the currency may be moving away from its speculative roots. 

Gold rallies while Bitcoin tanks

DBK sees bitcoin’s adoption following a path similar to gold’s, moving from skepticism to widespread acceptance, with regulation, macroeconomic trends and time paving the way. The bank said that Bitcoin and gold will continue to coexist as complementary hedges against inflation and geopolitical risk because of their scarcity and low correlation to other assets.

Investors often compare gold to safe money. Today, it jumped 1% to set a new record high and bring its 2025 gain to 43%. It hit a record high of $3,763. The precious metal has risen over 40% year-to-date.

The price of the metal went up about an hour after BTC dropped 3% in 24 hours, bringing its price down to $112,000. This ended its year-to-date gain of 17%. Based on the date, it’s possible that profits from selling bitcoins were turned into gold.

Although the two assets rarely move in tandem, there are occasional instances in which they rise or decline simultaneously, frequently with a brief lag. This time, the divergence is more pronounced.

However, gold is not the sole metal that attracts flows. Silver increased by 1.5% on Monday to reach $44, its third-highest level since 1975. It has now increased by over 50% year-to-date.

DBK says that no currency will dethrone the dollar

The report noted that the US dollar still makes up 57% of global reserves, but signs of diversification are emerging. China’s US Treasury holdings fell $57 billion in 2024, and momentum for crypto regulation is building in major markets.

For instance, Norway’s Norges Bank, the world’s biggest sovereign wealth fund, doesn’t hold bitcoin or any related ETFs, but it does hold about 2.9 million shares of Strategy as of its second quarter report. Many US state pension and retirement funds do too, including CalPERS, the country’s biggest pension and retirement fund.

According to BitcoinTreasuries.net, more than 180 public companies have added Bitcoin to their balance sheets. Many of these companies have only been around for a year. They hold 4.7% of all the Bitcoins that are ever made. 

However, since the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, US government yields have increased. The 10-year yield is now 4.125%, which is 2.5% higher than a year ago, and the 30-year yield is now 4.7%, which is 2% higher.

The dollar got stronger; the DXY measure went up by 1% to 97.5. Risky assets tend to lose value when the dollar gets stronger, and Bitcoin has lost over 3.5% since the Fed’s move.

The bank said neither Bitcoin nor gold is likely to dethrone the dollar, as governments will act to protect monetary sovereignty.

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