ConocoPhillips (COP) Stock Drops Despite Earnings Beat as Qatar Uncertainty Weighs on Outlook

TLDR

• ConocoPhillips posted adjusted Q1 EPS of $1.89, beating the $1.68 analyst estimate
• Net profit fell to $2.18 billion from $2.85 billion a year earlier
• Qatar has been excluded from both Q2 and full-year production guidance due to Middle East conflict
• Full-year production outlook cut to 2.3M–2.33M barrels/day from 2.33M–2.36M
• COP stock fell ~1.8% in premarket trading Thursday despite the earnings beat

ConocoPhillips beat earnings estimates for Q1 2026, but the stock still fell in premarket trading after the company trimmed its production outlook.

Adjusted earnings came in at $1.89 per share, topping the $1.68 analyst consensus from FactSet. On a reported basis, earnings were $1.78 per share.

Net profit for the quarter was $2.18 billion, down from $2.85 billion in the same period last year. That year-over-year drop reflects lower gas prices in the Permian Basin and reduced volumes.

ConocoPhillips, COP

The total average realized price per barrel of oil equivalent was $50.36, down 5.6% from Q1 2025. Production came in at 2.31 million barrels of oil-equivalent per day, a decrease of 80,000 barrels per day from the prior year.

ConocoPhillips said lower costs partially offset the decline in earnings.

Qatar Pulled From Guidance

The bigger story for investors was what the company left out of its guidance rather than what it reported.

ConocoPhillips excluded Qatar from both its Q2 and full-year production forecasts, citing uncertainty surrounding the ongoing Middle East conflict.

For Q2, the company guided for production of 2.19 million to 2.22 million barrels of oil-equivalent per day. That compares to 2.31 million barrels in Q1.

The full-year production outlook was cut to 2.3 million–2.33 million barrels per day, down from the prior forecast of 2.33 million–2.36 million barrels per day.

Stock Reaction

COP fell roughly 1.8% in premarket trading Thursday, dropping to around $126.10. That came after a 3.2% gain in the previous session.

Oil prices were also under pressure, pulling back after an early spike to a four-year high.

COP had been up around 37% year-to-date through Wednesday’s close before Thursday’s premarket move.

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