Why Brad Garlinghouse believes the CLARITY Act will pass in May despite missing two deadlines

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse declared at XRP Las Vegas that the CLARITY Act will pass by the end of May, his third public deadline for the bill after predicting 80% odds of April passage on Fox Business in February and revising to May at two successive industry events.

Brad Garlinghouse confirmed his end-of-May CLARITY Act timeline at XRP Las Vegas on April 30, three months after first placing an 80% probability on April passage during a Fox Business appearance. Disruption Banking reported that Garlinghouse is betting the bill clears the Senate Banking Committee, passes the Senate floor, and reaches Trump’s desk before the Memorial Day recess on May 21. “When people are at their peak of frustration, that’s when they finally compromise, and it gets done. I think we’re there,” Garlinghouse said.

As crypto.news reported, the 2030 cliff is not Garlinghouse’s framing alone — Senator Cynthia Lummis posted on X in April that this is “our last chance to pass the Clarity Act until at least 2030.” Senator Bernie Moreno has said the same more directly. Both senators framed the window as uniquely narrow because the current tri-branch alignment of House, Senate, and White House on crypto legislation is rare and may not survive a midterm election. Garlinghouse’s revisions are not contradictions. As the bill has missed successive deadlines, its support has grown. The coalition backing the bill has expanded to over 120 firms including Ripple, Coinbase, Kraken, and Andreessen Horowitz. As crypto.news documented, those firms sent a joint letter demanding an immediate markup on April 23.

The stablecoin yield dispute that blocked the bill since January — a fight over whether third-party platforms can offer rewards on stablecoin balances — is described by Garlinghouse as largely resolved following the White House CEA’s report finding a full yield ban would cost consumers $800 million annually. What remains is a calendar problem: the Senate returns May 11, the Memorial Day recess begins May 21, and Chairman Tim Scott has not yet put a markup date on the calendar. As crypto.news tracked, Polymarket prices 2026 passage at approximately 46%, Galaxy Research at 50-50, and TD Cowen at one-in-three — making Garlinghouse’s end-of-May prediction a notable outlier against market consensus.