Bitcoin, ether fall as traders react to rising Middle East tensions

The broader crypto market ticked lower on Tuesday with bitcoin BTC$80,621.04 falling 1% since midnight UTC to $80,800 and ether (ETH) losing 2% to $2,290.

U.S. equity futures also dropped after U.S. President Donald Trump said the ceasefire with Iran was “on massive life support,” leading to a spike in Brent crude oil to $107 per barrel and a 0.4% rise in the U.S Dollar Index (DXY).

Bitcoin, however, remains above Bitmine (BMNR) Chairman Tom Lee’s line in the sand at $76,000, which he said would confirm the end of a bull market if bitcoin can hold above that level at the end of the month.

The altcoin market is mixed with the majority of tokens underperforming the two largest cryptocurrencies, while a small corner of the market, including CRO$0.08090, curve (CRV) and toncoin (TON), bucked the bearish price action with upside moves between 5% and 10% in the past 24 hours.

Derivatives positioning

• Market-wide notional open interest (OI) in crypto futures rose to $125 billion even as volumes fell 6% to $174 million. The moves suggest reduced short-term speculation and gradual trader positioning.
• ZEC’s OI crashed over 10% to 1.90 million tokens from the 4.5-month high of 2.48 million tokens last week. At the same time, the token’s price dropped to $550 from $642. The combination suggests unwinding of bullish bets rather than fresh capital flows deployed for shorts or bearish plays.
• SUI, CORE, and HBAR were among the other major OI decliners. Open interest in Canton’s CC token, meanwhile, jumped more than 10%, with positive funding rates and a positive 24-hour OI-adjusted cumulative volume delta signaling stronger buyer dominance.
• ETH and XMR are other notable OI gainers, though their CVDs are negative, a sign that sellers are leading the price action with market orders rather than passive limit orders.
• The relentless decline in bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index, BVIV, has stalled this month, stabilizing near 40%. But there are no signs of a renewed upswing, which points to continued market calm, an environment favorable for further bullish price action.
• Wall Street’s volatility gauge, the VIX, which measures the 30-day implied volatility of the S&P 500 index, has jumped more than 10% this week to nearly 19 points. Though still below the recent highs above 30, the minor upswing warrants attention.
• On Deribit, the 24-hour volume ranking featured BTC calls at strikes of $80,000, $82,000, and $84,000. The calls are bets that the price of bitcoin will rally. It also included puts, or bets on a drop, at strikes of $65,000 and $74,000.

Token talk

• All CoinDesk benchmarks are in the red since midnight UTC, with the DeFi Select Index (DFX) leading the losses with a 2.7% move, followed by the CoinDesk Computing Select Index (CPUS) down by 2.3%.
• JUP, MON and SEI are among the day’s worst-performing altcoins, tumbling by between 5.6% and 6.3% due to a persistent lack of liquidity.
• CRO$0.08090 is one of the best-performing altcoins, adding 4.1% to notch a three-day winning streak.
• CRO’s rally can be attributed to a governance proposal that, if passed, would change the project’s tokenomics by replacing inflation-driven staking rewards with a system in which yields are fully funded by actual protocol revenue.
• CoinMarketCap’s “Altcoin Season” indicator is at 50/100, the highest level since late March as sentiment across the sector shows signs of improvement.