China stock rally may fade by year-end as valuations stretch

China’s market run is slowing down. The CSI 300 Index is now forecast to close out 2025 at just 4,675 points, a tiny 1.2% gain from this Monday, according to 16 analysts reportedly surveyed by Bloomberg.

That’s after the index already rose 17% this year. And it gets worse. By next June, those same analysts expect a mere 5.5% rise. What began as an AI-fueled breakout is now looking like a stall.

This year’s rally has done a little work to wash off the “uninvestable” tag China earned, but global investors still don’t trust it. Geopolitical tensions, old Trump-era policies, and a weak economy are still blocking serious capital from returning.

“2025 is about holding ground,” said Haris Khurshid of Karobaar Capital. “Policy support is there, but it’s inconsistent, and global funds are reluctant to re-risk until the geopolitical tone stabilizes.”

Tech stocks lead but valuations flash warning signs

China’s market jump this year was driven by AI and tech stocks. The Hang Seng Tech Index exploded 42%, with chipmakers Hua Hong Semiconductor and SMIC rising more than 233% and 140%. In September alone, Alibaba jumped almost 50% after throwing out some big AI investment plans.

Everyone’s riding the tech wave, but analysts are getting nervous. Twelve of the Bloomberg survey participants called AI the most crowded trade in China right now. “Every yuan of AI capex is being rewarded with a higher stock price, but at some point investors will want to see cash flows and not just announcements,” said Khurshid.

Almost all 21 analysts surveyed said foreign capital is crucial if this rally wants to keep moving. Without it, domestic enthusiasm can’t carry the load. But the money is hesitating. Policy shifts, weak macro numbers, and US-China uncertainty still spook long-term investors.

Zijin Gold lands record IPO as Hong Kong regains IPO momentum

While the broader market cools, Zijin Gold has pulled off a monster move. The mining giant raised $3.2 billion ahead of its Hong Kong debut, making it the largest IPO globally since May.

Shares were priced at HK$71.59, valuing the firm at HK$187.9 billion ($24 billion). It’s now bigger than Teck Resources in Canada. The listing had been set for Monday, but Super Typhoon Ragasa delayed trading to Tuesday.

Hong Kong now claims the two biggest IPOs of 2025 so far, with Zijin Gold second only to CATL’s $5.3 billion mega-deal. Michelle Leung said Zijin “picked the best time” to go public. She added that gold’s price boom has pumped up valuations across miners. As of Sept. 28, Zijin’s IPO was priced at a 26% discount to its global peers.

The IPO attracted a heavy lineup of buyers. GIC, Hillhouse, BlackRock, Fidelity, and Millennium were among cornerstone investors who agreed to hold shares for at least six months. Together, they took about half the float.

Zijin plans to use the IPO cash to buy a mine in Kazakhstan and upgrade sites globally. The company manages its parent group’s gold assets outside China, with mines from Central Asia to Africa, Australia, and South America. The firm has become one of the fastest-growing gold miners in the world.

Other miners have cashed in too. PT Merdeka Gold Resources raised $280 million in Jakarta this month, Indonesia’s largest IPO this year. Shandong Gold Mining also raised $500 million selling shares.

Traders are now watching a long list of possible triggers for the last quarter: the Golden Week holiday, Fourth Plenum in October, a Trump-Xi meeting at APEC, the Central Economic Work Conference in December, and possible action from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC).

About half of the analysts surveyed expect the PBOC to roll out some form of stimulus by year-end, especially if the Federal Reserve cuts rates first. But don’t expect fireworks. “The PBOC has hinted it’s ready to step in if growth shows more strain,” said Khurshid. “I’d look for small, targeted steps, rather than a big, broad stimulus package.”

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