U.S. Futures Fall And Betting Odds Rise As Government Shutdown Appears Imminent

Topline

U.S. stock futures fell early on Tuesday after a meeting of Congressional leaders from both parties and President Donald Trump failed to reach a deal on legislation to keep the government funded ahead of Wednesday’s deadline for a government shutdown.

Vice President J.D. Vance, accompanied by House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD), and Office of Management and Budget Director Russ Vought, is seen at a press conference following a meeting between President Trump and Congressional Democratic leaders.

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Key Facts

Dow Futures dropped 0.22% to 46,518 points in premarket trading early on Tuesday, while the benchmark S&P 500 Futures fell 0.15% to 6,703.50 points.

The tech-focused Nasdaq Futures also fell 0.12% to 24,806.75 points.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics— which produces monthly nonfarm jobs payroll data and is scheduled to do so on Friday—has warned it will suspend all operations if a shutdown occurs, in a move that could further raise concerns about the health of the job market.

In addition to this, the White House budget office has signaled it could use a shutdown to carry out mass firings across several government agencies.

What Do The Betting Markets Say About The Odds Of A Shutdown?

Bettors believe the odds of a government shutdown have increased significantly after congressional leaders from both parties met with Trump at the White House on Monday but failed to reach a deal. Bookmakers on the crypto betting platform Polymarket now believe there is an 83% chance of a U.S. government shutdown in 2025 and a 79% chance of a shutdown by Wednesday. Both numbers have seen a significant spike in the past 24 hours, rising by around 11 percentage points. Bettors on Kalshi also believe there is a 77% chance of a U.S. government shutdown starting on Wednesday, an 11-point increase in 24 hours.

Key Background

Congressional leaders from both parties met with Trump at the White House on Monday, but neither side could agree to a deal, and suggested that a shutdown looks imminent. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., told reporters outside the White House, “We have very large differences on healthcare and their ability to undo whatever budget we agreed to through recisions and through impoundment…Their bill has not one iota of Democratic input. That is never how we’ve done this before…And so it’s up to the Republicans whether they want a shutdown or not.” Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., blamed the Democrats, saying a stopgap funding bill is “sitting right now at the Senate desk.” He added: “We could pick it up and pass it tonight, pick it up and pass it tomorrow before the government shuts down…It is totally up to the Democrats, because right now, they are the only thing standing between the American people and the government shutting down.”