ECB faces major leadership shake-up as Lagarde and top board members near exit

The European Central Bank (ECB) is preparing for one of its largest leadership transitions in decades, with two-thirds of its six-member Executive Board, including President Christine Lagarde, set to be replaced over the next two years. 

Vice President Luis de Guindos will be stepping down in May 2026, followed by Chief Economist Philip Lane a year later. Lagarde’s term ends in October 2027, and Isabel Schnabel’s tenure on the Executive Board will be coming to an end in December of the same year. When combined, that would mean that four of the ECB’s top six seats will open by 2027.

The new appointments may affect the ECB’s internal balance between the north and south. Countries with larger economies tend to have more say on regional issues, with smaller economies feeling left out and clamoring for more inclusion.

ECB prepares for crowded race for executive roles

The race to replace Luis de Guindos as vice president is already heating up. One of the frontrunners is Olli Rehn, Finland’s central bank governor and a veteran of EU politics. Known for his pragmatic and centrist style, Rehn has long straddled the line between policymaking and diplomacy.

Clara Raposo, deputy governor of Portugal’s central bank, and Christina Papaconstantinou, her Greek counterpart, are also reportedly in the race, and both bring strong central banking experience and could benefit from governments’ growing preference for gender balance at the top.

Also in the mix are Nadia Calvino, the current head of the European Investment Bank, and Maria Luis Albuquerque, Portugal’s Financial Services Commissioner. From further east, Boris Vujcic, Croatia’s central bank chief who guided the country into the euro in 2023, could be in the running for either the vice presidency or the chief economist role.

That chief economist position, opening in 2027, oversees quarterly forecasts and drafts the interest-rate proposals that drive ECB policy debates. For France, it’s a particularly prized seat. Having already claimed the presidency with Lagarde and before her, Jean-Claude Trichet, Paris is expected to push hard to retain influence here.

Possible French candidates include Laurence Boone, a former OECD chief economist and adviser to Emmanuel Macron; Helene Rey, a respected economist at London Business School; Agnes Benassy-Quere, deputy governor at the Bank of France; and Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, currently chief economist at the IMF.

Early favorites emerge to succeed Lagarde

Among the most talked-about contenders is Pablo Hernandez de Cos, Spain’s former central bank governor and now head of the Bank for International Settlements.

Another leading figure is Klaas Knot, the long-serving Dutch central bank governor and former chair of the Financial Stability Board. As Cryptopolitan reported over the weekend, Lagarde praised Knot as having the “intellect, stamina, and inclusiveness” needed for the role.

Germany’s Joachim Nagel, head of the Bundesbank, is also up there. Meanwhile, Isabel Schnabel, a sitting ECB executive board member whose term ends just months after Lagarde’s, might also throw her hat in the ring, taking advantage of a legal loophole identified in 2018.

However, Germany may struggle to claim the presidency even though it already holds other top EU posts, notably Ursula von der Leyen’s European Commission presidency and Claudia Buch’s leadership of the ECB’s supervisory arm.

Should the leading candidates not make the cut, the ECB may look outside as it did when it appointed Lagarde in 2019.

Fresh vacancies may open if Schnabel and Frank Elderson leave their posts, which could mean seats for Eastern European figures like Latvia’s Martins Kazaks or Slovenia’s Bostjan Vasle.

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