OpenAI has signed more than $1 trillion worth of compute deals this year, chasing the infrastructure it says it needs to power services like ChatGPT.
But with only $12 billion in revenue, the numbers don’t add up, yet the company keeps signing deals like it has cash to burn. Monday’s deal with AMD came after similar ones with Nvidia, Oracle, and CoreWeave, giving OpenAI access to over 20 gigawatts of computing capacity, enough to match the output of 20 nuclear reactors, over the next ten years.
The cost per gigawatt sits at about $50 billion, based on OpenAI’s own estimates, pushing the total price tag for this compute race to $1 trillion. These long-term commitments now tie some of the world’s biggest tech firms to whether OpenAI can actually become profitable in the future.
That’s a big if, considering the company is expected to lose as much as $10 billion this year, according to Gil Luria, analyst at DA Davidson. “OpenAI is in no position to make any of these commitments,” he said. “Now a lot of big companies have a lot of skin in the game on OpenAI.”
Partners sign trillion-dollar chip and cloud deals
OpenAI’s deal with Nvidia could hit $500 billion, and the one with AMD is expected to reach $300 billion, though both include incentives meant to help OpenAI manage the costs.
Oracle’s deal adds another $300 billion, and CoreWeave has revealed computing contracts valued over $22 billion. The deals are also complicated, with circular setups and financing terms still being worked out.
Back in January, OpenAI started a project called Stargate with Oracle, SoftBank, and others. The initiative promises to throw $500 billion into building AI infrastructure in the U.S., though it’s unclear how Stargate fits in with the newer AMD and Nvidia deals.
So far, OpenAI hasn’t said whether it will buy chips outright or lease them through cloud partners. Sources say it’s likely to lease at least some of Nvidia’s GPUs.
To sweeten the deals, OpenAI is getting financial perks. Nvidia plans to invest $100 billion in OpenAI over the next decade, money OpenAI can use to buy Nvidia’s own chips.
AMD is offering warrants that let OpenAI buy up to 10% of AMD stock at one cent per share, depending on whether certain targets are met, including AMD’s stock performance. AMD’s shares closed near $204 on Monday. If prices keep rising, OpenAI could flip the shares to pay for AMD chips.
Liquidity fuels deals as OpenAI taps debt and equity
These setups are helping more than just OpenAI. Oracle’s market value jumped by $244 billion after its deal went public. AMD shares spiked 24% on Monday, adding $63 billion to its market cap.
Yesterday, OpenAI confirmed that it now has 800 million weekly active users, a 14% month-over-month increase. Its API is now processing 6 billion tokens per minute, with 4 million developers having used the OpenAI API in 2025 alone.
To stay afloat, OpenAI is stacking cash from every angle. It raised $4 billion in bank debt last year. Over the past twelve months, it’s pulled in around $47 billion in venture capital. But much of that funding hinges on an ongoing negotiation with Microsoft, OpenAI’s top backer. OpenAI was valued at $500 billion just this month, and insiders say it’s preparing to raise “tens of billions” more in debt for infrastructure.
Still, OpenAI’s credit risk is turning heads. Moody’s recently flagged how exposed Oracle’s future data center business is to OpenAI’s uncertain business model. But Nvidia’s involvement is giving investors some reassurance.
The chipmaker, now worth over $4 trillion, regularly uses its balance sheet to fund partners and customers. In this case, Nvidia has invested in CoreWeave, which supplies and buys Nvidia chips. CoreWeave has also raised $12 billion in debt, backed by Nvidia’s hardware.
Outside Nvidia, OpenAI’s investors are betting the company can grow its revenue far beyond the current $12 billion. They’re hoping it can double ChatGPT subscribers and release new products to bring in more cash.
But Sam Altman, OpenAI’s CEO, said on Monday, “Becoming profitable is not in my top-10 concerns.” He added, “Obviously someday we have to be very profitable, and we’re confident and patient that we will get there.”
Still, that patience may not last forever. As one Silicon Valley investor put it, “The company is in a far more capital-intensive business than Google or Microsoft ever was, and was born with no cost discipline.”
He pointed out that both Jeff Bezos and Larry Ellison only started cutting costs after nearly hitting bankruptcy. OpenAI, with a trillion in obligations and only billions in the bank, is now running full speed into that same wall.
The smartest crypto minds already read our newsletter. Want in? Join them.
Source: https://www.cryptopolitan.com/openai-hits-1-trillion-in-compute-deals/
