On-chain is still mid-zone, DXY is capped, and spot bid > mapping the $210k base case and the $280k extension into 2026.Continue reading on Coinmonks »On-chain is still mid-zone, DXY is capped, and spot bid > mapping the $210k base case and the $280k extension into 2026.Continue reading on Coinmonks »
Compression Before Lift-Off: Bitcoin’s Late-Cycle Setup for a Q4 ATH
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On-chain is still mid-zone, DXY is capped, and spot bid > mapping the $210k base case and the $280k extension into 2026.
Michael P. Di Fulvio
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Executive Summary
- Market structure: BTC is holding the weekly mid-band with higher lows above the SMA-20 and well above the SMA-50, signaling trend continuation after a volatility squeeze.
- Macro overlay: A heavy/sideways DXY and a gentle M2 upslope continue to underwrite risk assets—supportive but not euphoric.
- On-chain valuations: MVRV-Z and Puell remain mid-cycle, leaving room before classic blow-off zones. Realized Price keeps stair-stepping up as cost basis accretes.
- Base case: Break and hold above prior band high points to a Q4 ATH push toward ~$210k.
- Extension case: If institutional spot demand persists and DXY stays capped, the cycle can stretch into Q2 2026, with a measured path to $280k.
- Risk: Policy shocks (trade/FX) and a premature buildup of derivatives leverage without spot sponsorship.
TradFi Recap
A tariff headline shock rattled equities; BTC and gold outperformed on the day. Investor flows into…
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