That’s near the concentration levels seen at the height of the 2021 bull run and far above the figures from the 2017 cycle.

Murphy argues that this cycle is fundamentally different. While seasoned whales have offloaded some of their holdings to new institutional investors, their overall control of the market remains significant. What’s changed, he suggests, is their behavior: large holders are acting with far more restraint, signaling a new phase of market maturity.

In past cycles, whales’ panic selling often triggered brutal crashes. Between late 2017 and 2018, as Bitcoin plunged from $19,587, these big holders collectively lost about $1 billion a day, accelerating an 80% price collapse and ushering in a long bear market.

In 2021–2022, the scale was even worse – single-day whale losses hit $3 billion during the May 2021 crash and $4 billion in the Luna meltdown. The repeated multi-billion-dollar losses during that period marked the end of the bull market.

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But this time, the data tells a calmer story. The sharpest wave of selling came on August 5, 2024, with $2 billion in losses – significant, but far more contained than in previous years. Even when trade tensions reignited between the U.S. and China earlier in 2025, losses of $1.1 billion in February and $800 million in April were relatively modest.

And during the most recent crash on October 11, 2025, whale losses barely reached $400 million, suggesting large investors are holding steady despite volatility.

Murphy believes this restraint signals a fundamental shift in market psychology. With whales showing less panic and more long-term conviction, he concludes that a devastating 80% drawdown – like those seen in earlier cycles – now seems unlikely.

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