Tesla (TSLA) Stock: Why Wednesday’s Earnings Should Beat Wall Street’s Low Estimates

TLDR

• Tesla reports third-quarter earnings Wednesday after the bell, with Wall Street expecting earnings per share of 55 cents on $27.2 billion in revenue
• The company delivered a record 497,099 vehicles in Q3, roughly 54,000 more than analyst projections
• Options pricing suggests traders expect Tesla stock could move about 7% in either direction following the earnings report
• Tesla stock is up 11% year-to-date and 103% over the past 12 months as of Tuesday trading
• Investors will focus on updates about new lower-priced Model 3 and Y versions, robotaxi expansion plans, and the Optimus humanoid robot

Tesla stock was down 0.8% in early Tuesday trading at $443.73 ahead of the company’s third-quarter earnings report scheduled for Wednesday afternoon. The electric vehicle maker is expected to beat Wall Street’s estimates, though whether investors will care remains an open question.

Tesla, Inc., TSLA

Wall Street is projecting earnings per share of 55 cents on revenue of $27.2 billion for the quarter. The numbers look conservative given Tesla’s actual performance.

Tesla delivered a record 497,099 vehicles in the third quarter. That’s about 54,000 more cars than analysts had projected.

Those extra vehicles represent roughly $2.4 billion in sales. Yet Wall Street’s estimate for total automotive sales sits at just $20.6 billion, having risen only $600 million since the delivery report came out.

The lag suggests analysts haven’t fully updated their models yet. Third-quarter automotive estimates are only about $600 million higher than the $20 billion Tesla generated in Q3 2024, when it sold 34,209 fewer vehicles.

Tesla also deployed a record 12.5 gigawatt-hours of energy storage products in the quarter. That’s up from 6.9 gigawatt-hours in the same period last year.

What Investors Want to Hear

The numbers matter, but CEO Elon Musk’s commentary might matter more. Investors will be listening for updates on EV demand and the robotaxi business.

Tesla launched lower-priced “Standard” versions of its Model 3 and Y vehicles in October. Order numbers for these new models would give investors insight into demand at more accessible price points.

The robotaxi business launched in Austin, Texas in June. When Tesla plans to expand to another city or remove the safety monitor from the front passenger seat are key questions.

Musk warned in July about coming “rough quarters” ahead. The federal $7,500 EV purchase tax credit has expired, making electric vehicles more expensive for buyers.

The AI Story Drives Performance

Tesla stock is up about 11% year-to-date and 103% over the past 12 months as of Tuesday morning. The gains came despite Tesla selling fewer cars in 2025 than in 2024.

Investors have shifted focus to artificial intelligence opportunities instead. Tesla uses AI to train its autonomous driving systems and to develop humanoid robots.

Options markets are pricing in a stock move of about 6% in either direction following the earnings release. Tesla shares have moved an average of 10% over the past four quarterly reports.

A 7% swing from last week’s close would put shares either at about $470 or around $409. The higher price would mark Tesla’s second-highest closing price ever.

Last Year’s Earnings Catalyst

Tesla shares jumped 22% after reporting third-quarter 2024 results. The company posted earnings per share of 72 cents against Wall Street’s expectation of 59 cents.

Management’s outlook energized investors too. Tesla said it expected to grow car sales in 2024, implying fourth-quarter deliveries of about 515,000 vehicles when analysts were projecting 500,000.

The company ultimately delivered about 496,000 cars in that quarter. That miss meant Tesla failed to grow total car sales in 2024 compared with 2023.

Analysts remain divided on Tesla’s prospects. Of the 13 analysts with current ratings tracked by Visible Alpha, three recommend selling the stock and four rate it a hold.

Six analysts call it a buy. Their average price target is about $363, roughly 17% below Friday’s close.

Tesla stock has been volatile this year. Shares started 2025 near an all-time high but were dragged down in the first quarter by tariffs on cars, aluminum, and steel, along with public backlash against Musk’s political activities.

The stock rebounded after Musk had a public dispute with President Trump and pledged to focus more on his businesses. Tesla reports earnings Wednesday after the closing bell.

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