JPMorgan Upgrades Coinbase Stock on Base Token and USDC Strategy

TLDR

• JPMorgan upgraded Coinbase stock to “Overweight” with a $404 price target, citing new revenue opportunities from its Base network and USDC rewards changes
• The bank estimates a potential Base token could create $12-34 billion in market value, with Coinbase retaining $4-12 billion worth
• Coinbase may limit USDC interest rewards to paid subscribers only, potentially adding $374 million in annual earnings
• Coinbase stock jumped over 9% to $353 after the upgrade, bringing year-to-date gains to 42%
• The company reports third-quarter earnings on October 30, with analysts expecting $1.06 per share on $1.74 billion revenue

JPMorgan Chase upgraded Coinbase Global Inc. stock on Friday, raising its rating to “Overweight” from “Neutral.” The investment bank set a new price target of $404 per share.

The upgrade focuses on two main revenue opportunities for the cryptocurrency exchange. These include a potential token for its Base network and changes to its USDC stablecoin rewards program.

Coinbase stock rose more than 9% following the announcement, reaching approximately $353 per share. The company’s market capitalization now stands at roughly $90.6 billion.

Coinbase Global, Inc., COIN

The stock has gained 42% year-to-date. It previously reached a record high near $430 in July.

Base Token Valuation

JPMorgan analysts estimate a Base network token could represent between $12 billion and $34 billion in total market value. Coinbase would likely retain about 40% of the token supply.

This retention could translate to $4 billion to $12 billion in equity value for the company. The token distribution would prioritize developers, validators, and the Base community.

Base launched in August 2023 as an Ethereum layer-2 network. The platform now processes over 9 million daily transactions and holds more than $5 billion in total value locked.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong stated the company is exploring a Base token but has no definitive plans. Base creator Jesse Pollak said a token could accelerate decentralization at the BaseCamp conference in Vermont last month.

USDC Rewards Changes

JPMorgan identified potential margin expansion through modifications to Coinbase’s USDC rewards program. The company currently distributes approximately $400 million per year in interest rewards to customers.

Analysts said Coinbase may restrict these rewards to Coinbase One subscribers only. This change mirrors the tiered model used by Robinhood Gold.

If implemented, Coinbase could retain roughly $374 million annually at current USDC yields and interest rates. The bank views this as a way to improve profitability.

The report also mentioned Coinbase’s integration of a decentralized exchange aggregator within the Base app. This feature helps the company compete as decentralized exchanges now account for about 25% of total spot crypto trading volume.

Coinbase will report third-quarter earnings on October 30. Analysts expect earnings of $1.06 per share on revenue of $1.74 billion, representing year-over-year increases of 71% and 44.1% respectively.

The subscription and services segment is projected to contribute between $665 million and $745 million in the third quarter.

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