Evidence This Manchester City Just Can’t Be Trusted

Ahead of the game against Aston Villa, the narrative was all about how Manchester City had become dangerously reliant on Erling Haaland.

Jamie Carragher used his column in The Daily Telegraph newspaper to dig up an accidental Pep Guardiola slight on Tottenham Hotspur from 2017 when he referred to the North Londoners as “the Harry Kane team.”

This season, the former Reds defender pointed out, Manchester City could be accused of being the ‘Erling Haaland team.’

“Without him, City’s most realistic target would be finishing in the top four,” was his withering assessment.

Soccer’s media machine rarely tends to be a marketplace of ideas, and so, in the aftermath of the 0-1 loss to Aston Villa, all the post-game talk centered on Haaland being shackled.

“We tried tactically and in individual performance to get duels with him, intelligently, with the power we showed,” coach Unai Emery explained.

“Then we had some help from defensive cover and also the goalkeeper. We needed everything to stop him.”

There was decidedly less mention about Haaland missing a one-on-one with goalkeeper Emilio Martinez or the goal ruled out for Omar Marmoush leaning into an offside position. Once a narrative has been set, fine margins are ignored.

However, there is little escaping the statistics. After Erling Haaland, Manchester City’s next highest scorer is Burnley defender Maxime Esteve, who turned the ball into his own net twice when the two sides last met.

While Jeremy Doku and Phil Foden have sparkled at times this season, their records for finding the net are still modest.

As coach Pep Guardiola acknowledged post-game: “We haven’t scored a lot of goals this season and we have to make a step up,” he said.

“Today, it is difficult because they defended really well. We were there, we were close. In the games we won, we were not so productive.

“It is a Champions League team, unfortunately for them, they are not there, but they are a top top team for many years and will compete very well. They are in a good way.

“In general, I don’t have many complaints. Little details, but in general good.”

Guardiola is right; City weren’t bad against Aston Villa. In addition to the Haaland miss and offside goal, the visitors had one cleared off the line and a poor finish from Phil Foden to rue after the game.

But this is the crux of the issue.

Past versions of Manchester City would have persevered and come back to win the game. There would have been that ruthless self-confidence to get the job done.

Guardiola’s problem is that, regardless of how many players might have been part of those all-conquering sides might remain, when the winning machine broke last season, the difference-making inner confidence evaporated.

Villa Park was one of the venues where, 12 months ago, it was clear that for the first time in the best part of a decade, the wheels were coming off the Manchester City juggernaut.

“In that moment, we were in a mess,” reflected Guardiola ahead of the weekend fixture.

“It was one of the lowest points, for sure, last season. October to January. We were not able to win one game in the Champions League or the Premier League. I saw the [Villa] game yesterday, we didn’t have energy, we didn’t deserve [a result].”

“The players had no energy. ‘okay, you have no energy? We’ll play three, four, or five new players, because they have energy and want to play, but last season that could not happen.

“Some of them who won four Premier Leagues in a row [thought]: ‘okay, what’s next?’ and didn’t have it. When that happens, the players who were tired didn’t have [energy]. Sometimes you are drained, you are empty. It happened.”

This sudden loss of hunger prompted the club to go all out in January to strengthen the squad.

An uncharacteristic splurge on young talent totally changed the face of one of the league’s most reliable sides.

But as Guardiola pointed out, the refresh was always going to have consequences.

He added, “We talked a lot, we said: ‘Guys, we have to make a step back’,” said Guardiola. “In the wintertime, the club made signings for the next four, five, six, seven years.

“All of them were, and still are, unfinished business, because they are young. After that, the team came back. We got to the FA Cup final. And we finished third. If we’d given up, then we would have finished 10th. In this league? Finish 10th.

“We finished third and not much away from Arsenal (three points ahead in second), who were really good. I said: ‘Don’t give up, stay there, and we’ll be proud’.”

This is a new City. A team that has promise but simply at his stage cannot be trusted to go to places like Villa Park and deliver a result, especially if they slip a goal behind.