Is Apple A Buy Ahead Of Earnings October 30?

TLDR

• Apple releases Q4 fiscal 2025 earnings on October 30, with analysts expecting earnings of $1.78 per share and revenue of $102.17 billion
• iPhone 17 sales outpaced iPhone 16 by 14% in first 10 days in U.S. and China markets according to Counterpoint research
• Apple’s Services business set to exceed $100 billion in annual revenue for first time in 2025, growing 13% year-over-year
• Analysts remain divided with price targets ranging from $203 to $290, citing concerns about China competition and high valuations
• Import tariffs expected to impact Q4 margins by $1.1 billion, with gross margins forecast at 46-47%

Apple will report its fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results after market close on Thursday, October 30. The company has beaten Wall Street expectations for eight consecutive quarters.

Apple Inc., AAPL

Analysts expect earnings to increase 8.5% year-over-year to $1.78 per share. Revenue is forecast to rise 7.6% to $102.17 billion from $94.93 billion in the same period last year.

The iPhone accounts for approximately half of Apple’s total sales. Recent data from market research firm Counterpoint shows iPhone 17 sales exceeded iPhone 16 sales by 14% during the first 10 days in both U.S. and China markets.

The base iPhone 17 model has performed well in China. The premium model is selling better in the U.S. market.

Apple’s new iPhone Air is the thinnest smartphone on the market. The device has fewer capabilities than other models and has generated less consumer interest.

Services Business Growth

Apple’s Services business is projected to generate $108.6 billion in annual revenue for 2025. This marks the first time the segment will exceed $100 billion in yearly revenue.

The Services unit includes iCloud, Apple Pay, and AppleCare. These high-margin offerings account for 25% to 30% of Apple’s total revenue and contribute up to 50% of the company’s profit.

The Services segment is growing at approximately 13% year-over-year. Revenue comes from recurring subscriptions and deals like making Google the default search engine on iPhones.

Apple faces antitrust lawsuits in the U.S. and UK. Regulators are also considering potential caps on App Store fees.

Financial Pressures

Import tariffs are expected to pressure Apple’s margins in Q4. The company anticipates a $1.1 billion impact from tariffs this quarter.

Gross margins are forecast to land between 46% and 47%. Apple is valued at nearly $4 trillion as of October 2025.

Analyst Opinions

J.P. Morgan analyst Samik Chatterjee raised his price target from $280 to $290. He maintains a buy rating and expects high-single-digit revenue growth in both Q4 and the company’s Q1 outlook.

UBS analyst David Vogt maintained a hold rating with a $220 price target. He cited slowing iPhone demand in China where Apple faces competition from Huawei and Xiaomi.

Apple has used price discounts to boost iPhone 16 sales in China. Sales have still lagged behind Chinese competitors in the mainland market.

Jefferies analyst Edison Lee kept his sell rating and $203.07 price target. Lee downgraded the stock recently, stating the current price already reflects optimism about the iPhone 17 launch.

Lee expressed concern about unrealistic investor expectations for the iPhone 18 and a rumored foldable model. Neither product has been confirmed by Apple.

Stock Performance

On TipRanks, Apple has a moderate buy consensus rating based on 20 buy ratings, 12 hold ratings, and three sell ratings. The average price target of $260.74 represents a 3% decrease from current levels.

Apple stock has gained 7.7% year-to-date as of October 2025. The stock trades at 29 times forward one-year earnings and recently hit new highs after positive iPhone sales data.

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