The (Im)Probability Of The Dodgers Repeating As World Series Champions

Los Angeles Dodgers World Series MVP Yoshinobu Yamamoto holds his trophy as teammates celebrate their win in Game 7 of baseball’s World Series against the Toronto Blue Jays, Sunday, Nov. 2, 2025, in Toronto. (AP Photo/Ashley Landis)

After an 11-inning Game 7 victory last night, the Los Angeles Dodgers became only the second team in MLB history to repeat as World Series Champions in the Wild Card Era (1995 – Present). Across the 31 completed seasons since Major League Baseball expanded its postseason format, there have been only three instances of a team successfully defending its title. The only other organization to accomplish that feat over the past three decades is the New York Yankees, who won three consecutive championships from 1998 to 2000. In an era defined by expanded playoffs, even the league’s most dominant teams face long odds of returning to the top.

Dodgers’ Pre-Season World Series Expectations

Los Angeles Dodgers Clayton Kershaw holds the trophy as the Dodgers celebrate their win in Game 7 of baseball’s World Series against the Toronto Blue Jays, Sunday, Nov. 2, 2025, in Toronto. (AP Photo/Ashley Landis)

Heading into the 2025 season the Dodgers opened as overwhelming favorites to claim the World Series again, priced at +275, which implied a 26.7% chance of winning. That was more than twice the odds of any other team this year. Even so, that figure also highlights the inherent difficulty of repeating: a 26.7% chance still means the most likely outcome was that they would not win. The Dodgers not only overcame the randomness of October baseball, but they also became the rare favorite to fulfill expectations in back-to-back years.

To get a sense of how improbable winning two years in a row truly is, we can look back at the Dodgers’ odds to win the 2024 World Series, as well. Heading into the 2024 season, the Dodgers also opened as clear favorites to win the World Series, priced at +320, which implied a 23.8% chance of winning. Using these preseason figures, it’s possible to estimate the likelihood of a back-to-back championship by treating the two seasons as independent events. From a 2024 perspective, the chance of winning in both years would be the product of those probabilities:

P(World Series 2024) × P(World Series 2025) = 0.238 × 0.267 = 0.0635

or just 6.35%. Even with favorable odds in consecutive years, this accomplishment is statistically unlikely.

Dodgers Overcoming A 3-2 World Series Deficit

Even once the Dodgers made it back to the World Series, nothing was guaranteed. A dominant regular season and strong playoff run had them positioned to repeat, but the final hurdle proved anything but straightforward. After losing Game 5 to the Toronto Blue Jays, the Dodgers fell behind 3–2 in the series and faced elimination on the road. At that point, the Blue Jays were listed at –250 to win the series, implying a 70% probability of closing it out and securing their first championship since 1993.

Los Angeles Dodgers’ Shohei Ohtani celebrates a single against the Toronto Blue Jays during the fifth inning in Game 7 of baseball’s World Series, Saturday, Nov. 1, 2025, in Toronto. (AP Photo/Brynn Anderson)

To put that in perspective, although the Dodgers were favored in each of the final two games, their overall chance of winning the series from a 3–2 deficit was just 30%. A 30% chance of winning a World Series when down 3 games to 2 implies that the Dodgers had a roughly 54.8% chance of winning each of the last two games. A slight edge in two consecutive games doesn’t guarantee an outcome, however. That’s the paradox of postseason baseball: a team can be favored night to night and still be an underdog in the series.

How the Dodgers Beat the World Series Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers’ Freddie Freeman (5) and his teammates celebrate their win in Game 7 of baseball’s World Series as Toronto Blue Jays’ Alejandro Kirk, right, is out at first, Sunday, Nov. 2, 2025, in Toronto. (AP Photo/Ashley Landis)

The Dodgers’ back-to-back championships represent more than just consecutive titles. They mark a rare statistical outlier in the sport. From the moment players reported in 2024, through two seasons of expectations, playoff volatility, and a World Series deficit, the numbers were never firmly in their favor. Even as preseason favorites both years, their implied odds of repeating were just 6.35%. Even as of a few short days ago, their implied probability of winning the World Series stood at just 30%. That context is what makes this run so remarkable.

Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/giovannimalloy/2025/11/02/the-improbability-of-the-dodgers-repeating-as-world-series-champions/