Kalshi Surpasses Polymarket in October Trading Volume as Both Platforms Hit Records

TLDR

• Kalshi recorded $4.39 billion in trading volume for October 2025, surpassing competitor Polymarket for the first time
• Polymarket reached an all-time high of 477,850 active traders in October and posted $3.02 billion in volume
• Kalshi gained advantage through integration with Robinhood and easier access for mainstream users without crypto requirements
• Polymarket announced plans to launch a POLY token with an airdrop and aims to relaunch in the U.S. by end of November
• Both platforms faced technical outages during October and continue to face regulatory scrutiny over gambling concerns

Kalshi achieved $4.39 billion in notional trading volume during October 2025, setting a new monthly record for the prediction market platform. This marked the first time Kalshi surpassed its main competitor Polymarket in monthly volume.

The platform’s strongest performance came in the final week of October. Kalshi recorded nearly $1 billion in notional volume during that period alone.

Kalshi operates without blockchain technology to settle predictions. The platform relied heavily on sports betting markets to drive its October volumes.

Polymarket Shows Strong Recovery

Polymarket posted $3.02 billion in trading volume for October 2025. While lower than Kalshi’s figures, this represented a new all-time high for the platform.

The number of monthly active traders on Polymarket reached 477,850 in October. This surpassed the previous record of 462,600 from January 2025.

Polymarket’s active wallet count hit 76,000 as of October 31. This broke the record set during the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election period.

The platform saw a 93.7% increase in monthly users from September to October. September had recorded 246,610 monthly users.

Polymarket created 38,270 new markets in October. This was nearly three times the number recorded in August 2025.

Platform Differences

Kalshi offers easier access for mainstream Web2 users. The platform integrated with Robinhood and does not require cryptocurrency ownership.

Polymarket requires users to have crypto wallets and some crypto holdings. This creates a barrier to entry for traditional investors.

Both platforms experienced technical issues during October. Kalshi went through a market outage, while Polymarket had a temporary outage that still allowed API access for experienced traders.

Upcoming Changes for Polymarket

Polymarket confirmed plans to launch a native POLY token. The platform will conduct an airdrop for users.

The airdrop announcement may have driven the spike in October activity. Traders typically rush to platforms after airdrop news to meet eligibility requirements.

Polymarket is working to relaunch operations in the United States. The company targets completion before the end of November 2025.

The platform exited the U.S. in 2022 following an enforcement case. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission imposed a $1.4 million penalty at that time.

The CFTC has since softened its stance on prediction markets. The regulator now shows more openness to these platforms.

Election Prediction Markets

The New York mayoral election became the most active prediction market on both platforms. Kalshi reported volumes above $71 billion for this market.

Polymarket’s New York mayoral market recorded $365 million in trades. This made it the leading market for the past month.

Both platforms miscalculated results for the Dutch elections. This raised questions about prediction accuracy on current events.

Investment and Valuation

Kalshi raised $300 million in October at a $5 billion valuation. Bloomberg reported the company is receiving investment proposals that value it at up to $12 billion.

Google search data shows Polymarket receives more attention than Kalshi. Interest in Polymarket remains higher in recent weeks.

Both platforms face questions about whether their risk approach constitutes gambling. Regional authorities continue to examine how prediction markets should be regulated.

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