$312M Token Unlocks Incoming: Altcoin Rally on Hold?

The crypto traders are witnessing a phase of fear as the total market capitalization dropped 3.7% to $3.59 trillion on Nov. 3. This dip comes as over $312 million in token unlocks are set to hit the market between Nov. 3 and Nov. 10, according to data from Tokenomist.

These unlocks will release new supply from dozens of altcoins, many of which are still struggling to find strong demand. Among the largest one-time unlocks, valued above $5 million, are Ethena ENA $0.36 24h volatility: 7.6% Market cap: $2.55 B Vol. 24h: $275.51 M , Memecoin (MEME), and Movement (MOVE).

Meanwhile, ongoing daily releases (exceeding $1 million per day) are expected from Solana SOL $176.1 24h volatility: 5.3% Market cap: $97.38 B Vol. 24h: $5.86 B , Official Trump (TRUMP), Worldcoin WLD $0.79 24h volatility: 7.4% Market cap: $1.79 B Vol. 24h: $138.31 M , Dogecoin DOGE $0.17 24h volatility: 6.2% Market cap: $26.51 B Vol. 24h: $1.95 B , Avalanche AVAX $17.60 24h volatility: 6.1% Market cap: $7.51 B Vol. 24h: $452.76 M , Aster (ASTER), and others.

Historically, large-scale token unlocks tend to flood the market with supply, creating downward pressure on token prices. This could be even more dangerous when investor sentiment is already fragile as the Altcoin Season index has dropped to 25, a multi-month low.

Altcoin underperformance reaches extreme levels

A recent analysis from Glassnode highlights how deeply altcoins have underperformed compared to Bitcoin BTC $107 951 24h volatility: 2.6% Market cap: $2.15 T Vol. 24h: $48.29 B . The proportion of altcoins currently in profit is hovering at levels last seen during the 2022 bear market and the U.S.-China tariff war.

Even large holders, often referred to as “whales,” have been realizing losses. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) for this group remains below 1 since December 2024.

This indicates that most selling has occurred at a loss for nearly a year, an unusual stretch even for the volatile altcoin market.

Despite the current gloom, some analysts see potential for a turnaround. Market analyst Cas Abbe pointed out that Bitcoin’s dominance chart is forming a head-and-shoulders pattern. This is similar to the trajectory seen in late 2020, right before altcoins began to outperform BTC.

At present, Bitcoin dominance sits at 60%, up more than 2% in the past month. Abbe explained that traders should watch for a 58% dominance level, and a breakdown below that could trigger another altcoin rally.

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