Mamdani’s Odds Near 100% On Betting Sites

Topline

Democratic New York State assemblymember Zohran Mamdani’s odds of winning the New York City mayoral race reached at least 99% in multiple betting markets Tuesday, as the first votes were counted after polls closed in the race also featuring former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Republican nominee Curits Sliwa.

Betting odds favored Mamdani by a large margin hours before polls closed. (Photo by LEONARDO MUNOZ/AFP via Getty Images)

AFP via Getty Images

Timeline

9:14 p.m. ESTMamdani’s odds on prediction market Kalshi rose to 98%, while Polymarket showed a 100% chance.

8:45 p.m. ESTThe New York City Board of Elections reported 2 million votes had been cast—the most in a mayoral election since 1969.

8:40 p.m. ESTMamdani’s odds on Kalshi hit 95%, while Polymarket showed a 97% chance for the self-described democratic socialist to become the next mayor.

6 p.m. ESTVoter turnout in New York City reached over 1.8 million, the city’s highest in a mayoral election turnout since 1993, according to The New York Times, which noted turnout is on pace to surpass 2 million votes.

5:30 p.m. ESTMamdani’s odds of victory reached 93% on Kalshi and as high as 94.6% on Polymarket on Tuesday afternoon.

3 p.m. ESTCuomo’s odds were at 7% on Kalshi and 5.5% on Polymarket around the same time, while Sliwa’s odds of winning were around 1% on both betting sites.

6 a.m. ESTPolls opened in New York City, set to remain open through 9 p.m.

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What Billionaires Have Gotten Involved In New York City’s Election?

At least 26 billionaires have sunk donations into the mayoral election, with $22 million worth of funds going to groups opposing Mamdani. Bloomberg donated $8.3 million to the Fix the City super PAC, which backs Cuomo and also received a donation from Airbnb cofounder Joseph Gebbia. The Lauder family also donated to Fix the City, dishing out $2.6 million to the super PAC and anti-Mamdani group Sensible City. Hedge fund manager Bill Ackman put up $1.75 million to Fix the City and Defend NYC.

What Has Trump Vowed To Do If Mamdani Wins?

Trump urged voters to back Cuomo, a former Democratic candidate running as an independent, a day before polls closed, saying he would rather see a Democrat win the election than a “communist with no experience,” referring to Mamdani, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America. Trump, who was born and raised in New York City, told “60 Minutes” days prior to the election it would be “hard” to provide federal money for the city because “if you have a communist running New York, all you’re doing is wasting the money you’re sending there.” The president reiterated the idea Monday, saying in a Truth Social post “it is highly unlikely that I will be contributing Federal Funds, other than the very minimum as required” to New York City if Mamdani wins.

What Has Wall Street Said?

Wall Street has expressed concern about a Mamdani victory, with Dean Lyulkin, CEO of private investment firm Cardiff, telling Reuters he was viewing it as a risk in 2026. He added, “Actual policy often turns out much more benign than campaign rhetoric, but if other major cities follow this pattern, markets may start pricing in more tax and regulatory risks.” Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities, also spoke to Reuters, noting that despite a potential Mamdani win, “I don’t think we’re going to see the drastic program that he is proposing go into effect.” Wall Street firms doing business in investing, advising and wealth management overwhelmingly donated to pro-Cuomo groups, according to a Business Insider analysis, while contributions from research, human relations and corporate operations firms favored Mamdani.

Key Background

Mamdani won the Democratic nomination for mayor, as well as an endorsement from the Working Families Party, a progressive and left-leaning party, giving him two listings on the ballot. He defeated Cuomo for the Democratic nomination with 56% of the vote in June, which is what led to Cuomo running as an independent candidate. Mamdani’s campaign has turned Republican and Democratic heads alike for supporting policies that, if enacted, would raise the corporate tax, freeze rent for rent-stabilized apartments and make city buses fare free.