Firefly Aerospace (FLY) Stock: Earnings Beat Sends Shares Soaring in Premarket

TLDR

• Firefly Aerospace reported third-quarter revenue of $30.8 million, beating Wall Street’s estimate of $27.5 million by 12%.
• The company forecasts 2025 revenue between $150 million and $158 million, well above analyst expectations of $136 million.
• Firefly’s Alpha rocket can carry 1,000 kilograms to low Earth orbit, more than triple Rocket Lab’s Electron capacity of 300 kilograms.
• Shares jumped 24% in premarket trading following the earnings beat, after falling from a post-IPO high of $73.80 to $19.13.
• The company closed its acquisition of SciTec with a $260 million revolving credit facility and won a $176.7 million NASA contract for lunar payload delivery.

Firefly Aerospace delivered a much-needed win Wednesday evening. The space launch company reported third-quarter revenue of $30.8 million, crushing Wall Street’s expectation of $27.5 million.

The 12% revenue beat came at just the right time. Shares had been in freefall since the company’s August IPO at $45 per share.

The stock briefly touched $73.80 before dropping to just $19.13 by Wednesday’s close. Now shares are up 24% in premarket trading at $22.75.

Firefly Aerospace Inc., FLY

The company posted a per-share loss of $1.50 for the quarter. Analysts had expected a 42-cent loss, but revenue growth matters more than profitability at this stage.

Wall Street isn’t betting on positive operating income until 2027. That’s the same timeline as Rocket Lab, which trades at a vastly different valuation.

Revenue Guidance Jumps Above Expectations

Firefly raised its full-year 2025 revenue outlook to between $150 million and $158 million. Wall Street had been projecting just $136 million.

The new guidance implies fourth-quarter revenue of roughly $52 million. Current analyst estimates sit at only $36 million for the period.

Third-quarter revenue jumped 98% from the previous quarter. Year-over-year growth came in at 38%.

The company’s spacecraft teams drove much of the growth. Multiple contracts reached key execution milestones during the quarter.

Firefly also closed its acquisition of SciTec during the period. The deal included a $260 million revolving credit facility to support the transaction.

Alpha Rocket and Competitive Position

Firefly’s Alpha rocket carries 1,000 kilograms to low Earth orbit. That’s more than triple the 300-kilogram capacity of Rocket Lab’s Electron rocket.

Alpha launched once in 2025, carrying a Lockheed Martin payload in April. Rocket Lab’s Electron is on pace for more than 20 flights this year.

The companies occupy different niches in the space economy. Alpha is designed for rapid deployment, requiring just weeks to prep for launch.

Both companies are developing larger rockets. SpaceX’s Falcon 9, by comparison, can carry 23,000 kilograms and will launch over 150 times in 2025.

Firefly and Rocket Lab trade at wildly different valuations. Rocket Lab commands a $31 billion market cap at 27 times estimated 2027 sales.

Firefly sits at roughly $3 billion, trading at less than four times the same metric. A few more quarters like this one could change that math.

Recent Setbacks and Recovery Path

Second-quarter results disappointed after the IPO. Revenue came in at $15.5 million against expectations of $16.8 million.

Then came the September 29 ground test failure. An Alpha first stage was lost during testing at Firefly’s facility.

Shares dropped 21% on September 30, closing at $29.32. The incident made it harder for the stock to recover its early IPO momentum.

The test stand remained intact and upgrades are now underway. Firefly implemented corrective measures following the event.

The second stage has already been delivered to the launch site. The next first stage is being prepared to ship from the production line.

Alpha Flight 7 is scheduled for launch between late fourth quarter and early first quarter. The timeline suggests the team is moving past the setback.

Contract Wins and Program Updates

NASA awarded Firefly a $176.7 million contract for Blue Ghost Mission 4. The mission will deliver lunar payloads to the Moon’s south pole.

NASA also added $10 million to the Blue Ghost Mission 1 contract. The money covers acquisition of extra lunar data beyond initial requirements.

Blue Ghost Mission 2 structure qualification models were built and fit checked during the quarter. Initial systems-level qualification testing took place at the Briggs, Texas facility.

The Elytra spacecraft flight unit for Blue Ghost Mission 2 is now in cleanroom assembly. Mission simulation testing for Elytra Mission 1 exceeded 200 hours during the quarter.

Firefly signed a space cooperation agreement to study launching Alpha from Hokkaido Spaceport in Japan. The company also won an Elytra study contract from NASA for multi-spacecraft delivery missions.

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