Fed Decision Week Puts Bitcoin Under Pressure

Now crypto markets head into one of their heaviest macro weeks of the year, with Washington reopening and the Fed back in focus. This mix of fresh economic data, rate-cut signals and shifting liquidity is already feeding into Bitcoin’s slide and broader risk sentiment.

Macro Week Puts US Reopening, Fed Signals and Liquidity Back in Focus

Crypto trades into a heavy macro week as the United States government fully reopens, delayed economic data returns, and the Federal Reserve’s guidance and balance sheet move back to the center of market attention. The backdrop includes the end of the longest shutdown in US history and a rate-cutting cycle that already started at the October 28–29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

The federal government resumed normal operations on November 12 after a 43-day shutdown that furloughed about 900,000 workers and disrupted key services and data releases. Agencies such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Census Bureau are now restarting publication of delayed reports, although economists expect gaps and lags in figures like jobs, inflation, and spending.  Markets will use this week’s scheduled releases, including manufacturing and housing indicators, to gauge how much damage the shutdown did to an economy that was already slowing before October.

Trump And Powell Fed Signals. Source: DeFi Tracer on X

At the same time, investors remain focused on the Fed’s path after its first 25-basis-point rate cut of 2025 and Chair Jerome Powell’s recent comments that weaker hiring has increased the case for further easing this year.  The minutes from the October FOMC meeting, due for release on November 19, will offer more detail on how officials see the balance between slowing growth, still-elevated inflation near 2.9%, and financial-market strains after the shutdown.

Futures markets already price a further cut at the December meeting, so any signal about the size or timing of additional moves can affect bond yields, the dollar and risk assets, including crypto.

Fed Liquidity And Sentiment Data Set Tone For Crypto

Later in the week, the Fed’s regular balance-sheet report (H.4.1), which comes out on Thursday afternoon, will update how much liquidity the central bank is supplying through its securities holdings and lending facilities. This weekly snapshot tracks total assets and reserve balances in the banking system and is widely watched as a proxy for dollar liquidity conditions. Changes in the Fed’s holdings and usage of its tools feed into funding markets and can indirectly shape trading conditions across equities, bonds, and digital assets.

Finally, Friday’s sentiment and activity readings will show how households and firms are reacting now that the shutdown is over but its effects are still visible. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index recently dropped to 50.3, down 6% month-on-month and 30% year-on-year, reflecting broad anxiety across income and political groups.

As fresh data and Fed communication arrive through the week, crypto traders will be watching how expectations for December rate cuts, liquidity trends, and post-shutdown recovery shape risk appetite across global markets.

Dropping Fed Rate Cut Odds Weigh on Bitcoin

Now Bitcoin faces renewed pressure as traders scale back expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. Odds for a move at the final meeting of the year have fallen about 44 percentage points since their early October peak, according to chart data shared by analyst Crypto Rover. The shift comes while the central bank signals it will keep borrowing costs elevated until inflation slows more convincingly.

Bitcoin Slides As Rate Cut Odds Drop. Source: Crypto Rover on X

As rate-cut bets fade, US Treasury yields and the dollar remain firm, tightening financial conditions and reducing demand for risk assets. Bitcoin has retreated from its October highs alongside this repricing, with the chart showing a steady slide through November as expectations for easier policy unwind.

Market desks now link a large part of Bitcoin’s weakness to the “higher-for-longer” narrative rather than token-specific news. Traders say any renewed rise in the probability of a December or early-2026 cut could ease some of that pressure, while further declines in cut odds may keep the largest cryptocurrency pinned near recent lows.