Bitcoin plunges below $86,000 as US jobs data dampens rate cut hopes

Bitcoin fell to new local lows on Thursday after the latest U.S. jobs report pointed to lingering inflationary pressures.

According to The Block's bitcoin price page, the world's largest cryptocurrency fell 7.32% to $85,700 in the 24 hours leading up to 11:50 p.m. ET on Thursday. This marks a low in nearly seven months and a 32% decline from bitcoin's all-time high record of $126,080 set in October.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains at 11, signaling "extreme fear" as the market slides further. The entire crypto market is down 6.62% in the past 24 hours.

“BTC slipping below $85.5K comes as stronger-than-expected US jobs data dampens expectations for a December rate cut," said Vincent Liu, CIO at Kronos Research. "Liquidity remains thin, and short-term profit-taking is amplifying the move. The market is recalibrating risk, reacting to macro data points."

September's delayed non-farm payroll data on Thursday showed that the U.S. economy added 119,000 jobs in the month, vastly exceeding the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 50,000, according to a report from CNBC.

The higher-than-expected inflation indicator fueled concerns that the Federal Reserve may pause its easing cycle, placing additional downward pressure on the crypto market. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool currently gives a 35.4% chance that the Fed would cut rates by 25 basis points next month.

"All eyes are focused on the potential December rate cut, but much of it may be priced in," Liu said. "BTC will bounce on the cut, yet a sustained rally needs fresh flows or renewed on-chain demand."

The Kronos Research analyst said the market would need not only Fed's pause of quantitative tightening, but also fresh capital, strong on-chain demand, and a shift in sentiment. "Without all four, any bounce may fizzle," Liu said.

Meanwhile, LVRG Research Director Nick Ruck told The Block that the current market correction is a "healthy repricing" of overextended positioning from the price rally last month. 

"On-chain metrics [are] showing stabilizing spot and futures sell pressure as signs of capitulation being almost over," Ruck said.